2025 Japanese House of Councillors election
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The 27th general election of the House of Councillors is scheduled to be held in Japan by 27 July 2025 to elect 124, half of the 248 members of the House of Councillors, the upper house of the National Diet, for a term of six years.[1][2]
The elections will take place about 10 months into the premiership of Shigeru Ishiba, who has governed Japan as Prime Minister since he won the leadership of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in September 2024. Shortly after he became Prime Minister, Ishiba announced snap elections to the House of Representatives for 27 October, which saw the LDP lose its majority for the first time since 2009. Since November 2024, Ishiba has governed as the leader of a minority government, struggling to pass legislation and budget agreements without the support of opposition parties. Growing dissatisfaction with the LDP and a scandal involving gift vouchers given to MPs by Ishiba have hurt his approval ratings. Simultaneously, opposition parties have attempted to unite in an effort to deny the LDP a majority in the election; the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) and Ishin no Kai Party in particular formulated plans to hold “opposition primaries” in several prefectures.
Electoral system
[edit]Elections to the House of Councillors (HOC) are held every three years. During each election, half of the Upper House members (Councilors) are up for election. This means each member serves a six-year term. For example, those elected in 2019 will be up for reelection in this summer election.
The electoral system is similar to that of the House of Representatives (HOR), with a few key differences: Instead of specific districts like in the House (for example, Kyoto-2), the districts for the HOC are solely prefectural. Candidates are elected using a combination of the single non-transferable vote (SNTV) system and first-past-the-post (FPTP) voting in both multi-member and single-member prefectural electoral districts. (Certain prefecture are small enough to yield a single Councilor, for example Fukushima prefecture). Roughly half of the candidates are elected through proportional representation (PR). Elections to the House of Councilors use a national PR list, as opposed the House of Representatives, which divides PR into various regional blocks. The list candidates are elected on a national level using proportional representation, while constituency Councilors are elected by prefecture via STV or FPTP in prefectures that can have only 1 Councilor or up to 6, depending on population.
Background
[edit]Previous election
[edit]The October 2024 general election resulted in the loss of majority of the Liberal Democratic Party-Komeito governing coalition in the House of Representatives under Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba,[3][4] with the possibility of the ruling coalition suffering another "major defeat" at the House of Councillors election if opposition parties unite their candidates.[5]
Multi-party cooperation
[edit]Opposition unification attempts
[edit]According to Jiji Press, if five opposition parties, including the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP), make deals in the 32 single-seat constituencies, the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition is projected to win 10 seats against the opposition camp's 22, and only three if the Nippon Ishin no Kai, also known as the Japan Innovation Party, joins the opposition alliance.[5] In January 2025 Ishin introduced a plan to the CDP that would seek to "unify" the opposition in single-member districts against the LDP; their proposal involves the use of online polls and holding primary elections. Reiwa, the Social Democrats, and the Democratic Party For the People (DPFP) cast doubt on the plan while the Communists declined to participate entirely.[6] Later in February, Ishin announced that a decision on whether or not to hold opposition primaries would be made within the month; party Secretary General Ryohei Iwatani commented that every party except the Communist Party had been "quite positive" about the plan. He also said the party was open to reforms to their plan by the CDP.[7] In early March, Ishin co-leader Seiji Maehara proposed running a primary system with the CDP in the prefectures of Shiga, Nara and Wakayama (1 seat each) for election; all of them are in the area of influence of Osaka, Ishin's stronghold.[8] Speaking on the prospect of uniting the opposition CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda stated "I generally support the plan, but I have told Maehara that we need the participation of all opposition parties, so we should make an appeal for them to participate, and that if the only opposition candidates in a constituency are from the Constitutional Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party [Ishin], then we should settle it through a primary election."[9] Later on 6 March, the DPFP began working on a policy agreement with the CDP.[10]
LDP-Komeito
[edit]The ruling LDP signed an agreement with the Komeito in February regarding cooperation in the election, which stated that the LDP would support Komeito candidates in 5 districts & set conditions for Komeito support of those implicated in the slush fund scandal.[11] At LDP’s 70th anniversary celebration event on 9 March, Ishiba said the party should aim to unify and return to its roots of “people-friendly politics.”[12] The day earlier Ishiba stated he wanted to “win at all costs.”[13] Ishiba’s former leadership rival Takayuki Kobayashi criticized Ishiba’s speech, claiming he did not get a sense of a string message from the Prime Minister; others believed the part’s minority status in the Diet hurt the LDP, and Ishiba's efforts to shape the country’s national agenda.[14][15] Sanae Takaichi, also a former LDP leadership rival, was critical of Ishiba's speech as well.[16] On the same day as Ishiba's speech, Mio Sugita was revealed as an endorsed candidate for proportional representation in the election.[17] In 2022 and 2023, Sugita had been found guilty of human rights violations by the Sapporo Legal Affairs Bureau for posting discriminatory statements against ethnic Koreans, LGBT people and others on her blog.[18] Sugita's remarks, for which she apologized, were largely considered to be racist.[19] The Asahi Shimbun reported that the LDP's decision to endorse the controversial former lawmaker was likely due to requests from the conservative wing of the faction close to the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, whom Sugita was said to be close to.[20]
Other developments
[edit]The “partial coalition” between the LDP-Komeito coalition and the opposition Ishin party reached an agreement in February that ensued the passage of the fiscal 2025 budget.[21][22] The budget included provisions that called free high school education & social insurance premium fee cuts.[23]
In March, reinstated DPP leader Yuichiro Tamaki stated that the party's goal was to win 21 or more seats in the Upper House.[24] Tamaki later clarified that the party would "field as many candidates as possible..." on 25 March.[25][26] That same month, the DPFP nominated university professor & conservative commentator Yamada Yoshihiko as a candidate in the proportional representation block.[27]
Sanseito announced they would aim for 6 seats.[28]
The Social Democratic Party said they would attempt to win more than 3 seats in the chamber.[29]
Ishiba gift certificate scandal
[edit]On 13 March 2025, The Asahi Shimbun revealed that several LDP members of parliament who were elected for the first time in the 2024 general election received gift certificates from the office of Ishiba in early March.[30] Ishiba’s office later confirmed that he had distributed gift certificates worth approximately ¥100,000 ($676) each to about a dozen lawmakers as "souvenirs” intended to be used to purchase new suits. Ishiba claimed the certificates were paid from his personal funds and were not intended for political activities but as a supplement for living expenses.[31] According to the Yomiuri Shimbun, most of the lawmakers decided to return the gift certificates instead of using them. The incident took place while discussions were underway in the Diet on the transparency of political funds, particularly regarding corporate and organizational donations.[32] Ishiba had met with Komeito Chief Representative Tetsuo Saito the day before, who pledged his party's support for him; earlier in the week upper house LDP lawmaker Shoji Nishida publicly stated that Ishiba should be replaced by a new party President.[33][34] Ishiba, who was elected as LDP President on a reformist platform, was widely criticized by opposition lawmakers. CDP leader Yoshiko Noda promised to pursue inquiries over the incident in the Diet.[35] Osaka Governor and co-leader of the Ishin party Hirofumi Yoshimura criticized Ishiba’s actions.[36] The Political Funds Control Act prohibits donations of cash or securities to individual politicians; the 100,000 yen in gift certificates in this case could have been considered a 'donation’ in this case.[31]
Political parties
[edit]| Parties | Leader | Ideology | Seats | Status | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last election | Before election | |||||
| Liberal Democratic Party | Shigeru Ishiba | Conservatism Japanese nationalism |
119 / 248 |
115 / 248 |
Governing coalition | |
| Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan | Yoshihiko Noda | Liberalism | 39 / 248 |
38 / 248 |
Opposition | |
| Komeito | Keiichi Ishii | Buddhist democracy Social conservatism |
27 / 248 |
27 / 248 |
Governing coalition | |
| Nippon Ishin no Kai | Hirofumi Yoshimura
and Seiji Maehara |
Right-wing populism Economic liberalism |
21 / 248 |
20 / 248 |
Opposition | |
| Japanese Communist Party | Tomoko Tamura | Communism Democratic socialism |
11 / 248 |
11 / 248 | ||
| Democratic Party For the People | Yuichiro Tamaki | Conservatism | 10 / 248 |
9 / 248 | ||
| Reiwa Shinsengumi | Tarō Yamamoto | Progressivism Left-wing populism |
5 / 248 |
5 / 248 | ||
| Collaborative Party | Ayaka Otsu (disputed) | Anti–TV license fees | 2 / 248 |
0 / 248 | ||
| Social Democratic Party | Mizuho Fukushima | Social democracy | 1 / 248 |
2 / 248 | ||
| Sanseitō | Sohei Kamiya | Ultraconservatism Right-wing populism |
1 / 248 |
1 / 248 |
Unaffiliated | |
Notes
[edit]References
[edit]- ^ Archived from the original on 2 March 2025. Retrieved 17 June 2024.
- ^ Archived from the original on 2 March 2025. Retrieved 17 June 2024.
- ^ "Japan's ruling bloc loses lower house majority, a red flag for PM". Kyodo News (in Japanese). 28 October 2024.
{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link) - ^ Archived from the original on 13 November 2024.
- ^ a b the original on 4 January 2025.
- ^ 日本放送協会 (24 January 2025). Archived from the original on 2 March 2025. Retrieved 25 January 2025.
- ^ 日本放送協会 (3 February 2025). Archived from the original on 4 February 2025. Retrieved 4 February 2025.
- ^ Archived from the original on 18 March 2025. Retrieved 14 March 2025.
- ^ 日本放送協会 (13 March 2025). Archived from the original on 18 March 2025. Retrieved 17 March 2025.
- ^ 日本放送協会 (6 March 2025). "国民民主と連合"3月中に基本政策の方向性を" 立民含む合意へ | NHK". NHKニュース. Retrieved 28 March 2025.
- ^ Archived from the original on 28 February 2025. Retrieved 2 March 2025.
- ^ 日本放送協会 (9 March 2025). Archived from the original on 21 March 2025. Retrieved 10 March 2025.
- ^ 日本放送協会 (8 March 2025). Archived from the original on 11 March 2025. Retrieved 10 March 2025.
- ^ 政治部, 時事通信 (9 March 2025). Archived from the original on 9 March 2025. Retrieved 10 March 2025.
- ^ Archived from the original on 12 March 2025. Retrieved 10 March 2025.
- ^ "「高市早苗氏がふさわしい」自民党内から「石破総理交代」論". テレ朝news (in Japanese). Retrieved 14 March 2025.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link) - ^ Archived from the original on 18 March 2025. Retrieved 14 March 2025.
- ^ Archived from the original on 19 October 2023. Retrieved 14 March 2025.
- ^ Archived from the original on 18 March 2025. Retrieved 14 March 2025.
- ^ Archived from the original on 18 March 2025. Retrieved 14 March 2025.
- ^ Shimbun, The Yomiuri (27 February 2025). Archived from the original on 27 February 2025. Retrieved 2 March 2025.
- ^ Archived from the original on 25 February 2025. Retrieved 2 March 2025.
- ^ Archived from the original on 4 March 2025. Retrieved 2 March 2025.
- ^ 日本放送協会 (4 March 2025). Archived from the original on 4 March 2025. Retrieved 6 March 2025.
- ^ 日本放送協会 (25 March 2025). Archived from the original on 26 March 2025. Retrieved 26 March 2025.
- ^ Archived from the original on 26 March 2025. Retrieved 26 March 2025.
- ^ 慎吾, 永原 (28 March 2025). "国民民主、山田吉彦氏の参院選擁立を正式発表 進む保守層の「自民離れ」". 産経新聞：産経ニュース (in Japanese). Retrieved 29 March 2025.
- ^ 日本放送協会 (9 March 2025). Archived from the original on 12 March 2025. Retrieved 10 March 2025.
- ^ 日本放送協会 (15 March 2025). Archived from the original on 16 March 2025. Retrieved 15 March 2025.
- ^ Archived from the original on 19 March 2025. Retrieved 14 March 2025.
- ^ a b 日本放送協会 (14 March 2025). Archived from the original on 13 March 2025. Retrieved 14 March 2025.
- ^ Archived from the original on 18 March 2025. Retrieved 14 March 2025.
- ^ Archived from the original on 18 March 2025. Retrieved 14 March 2025.
- ^ 日本放送協会 (12 March 2025). Archived from the original on 18 March 2025. Retrieved 14 March 2025.
- ^ Archived from the original on 18 March 2025. Retrieved 14 March 2025.
- ^ Yoshimura, Hirofumi [@hiroyoshimura] (13 March 2025). Archived from the original on 18 March 2025. Retrieved 13 March 2025 – via Twitter.
