Theater awards are as old as the theater itself – such dear old Greeks as Aeschylus and Sophocles competed for them.
But whether they do much good, apart from serving as a marketing instrument for producers, is questionable. Even the biggest hits from Hollywood or Broadway are not always the works that endure.
Yet the Tonys (which air tonight at 9 on CBS) are a very cheerful circus and do, in general, recognize quality, even if we can’t quite remember who won them last year and certainly not the year before.
This year’s horse races – there are nominations in 21 categories – are astonishingly evenly matched. Certainly, this is the most difficult Tony race I have predicted in more than 30 years of predictions.
Normally I get 90 percent right; this time, I’ll be more than happy with 60 percent.
BEST PLAY
Will win: “Copenhagen”
Should win: “The Ride Down Mt. Morgan”
Michael Frayn’s excellent and immaculately acted “Copenhagen” is the snob hit of the season, which will probably let it push out local boy Arthur Miller, but watch out for “Dirty Blonde” jumping in between to win a pretty open race.
BEST MUSICAL
Will win: “Contact”
Should win: “James Joyce’s ‘The Dead'”
In a strange year for original musicals – the good ones were all more original than musical – Susan Stroman’s hit, though controversial since no one sings and even the dancing is to recorded music, will smother the gentler, deeper pleasures of James Joyce.
BEST REVIVAL
OF A PLAY
Will win: “A Moon for the Misbegotten”
Should win: “The Real Thing”
Both are popular, both are worthy. “Moon” is an American classic, while “The Real Thing” is British highbrow but is not the season’s snob hit (see Best Play). So, I guess, Frayn and O’Neill win, and Miller and Stoppard lose.
BEST REVIVAL
OF A MUSICAL
Will win: “Kiss Me, Kate”
Should win: “Kiss Me, Kate”
This is just a two-horse race, and very lively opposition will be put up by “The Music Man.” But I think the superiority of Cole Porter’s score, and the cast, will prevail.
BEST PERFORMANCE
BY A LEADING ACTOR
IN A PLAY
Will win: Gabriel Byrne
Should win: Stephen Dillane
The “True West” twins will knock one another out. As for the Byrne/Dillane contest, see note on Best Play Revival.
BEST PERFORMANCE
BY A LEADING
ACTRESS IN A PLAY
Will win: Cherry Jones
Should win: Jennifer Ehle
Cherry Jones is a critic’s favorite and an emergent Broadway star, apart from being wonderful in the O’Neill. At least young Ehle won’t have to face beating her great mum, the also-nominated Rosemary Harris, and meeting her at the party afterward.
BEST PERFORMANCE
BY A LEADING ACTOR
IN A MUSICAL
Will win: Brian Stokes Mitchell
Should win: Christopher Walken
Mitchell is terrific in “Kate,” and his real opposition comes from newcomer Craig Bierko, who I suspect modeled his “Music Man” performance too closely on Robert Preston’s original to beat him. As for the marvelous Walken in the “James Joyce,” it’s a case of out of sight, out of mind. And, anyway, he can’t really sing!
BEST PERFORMANCE
BY LEADING ACTRESS
IN A MUSICAL
Will win: Heather Headley
Should win (or at least share the award): Marin Mazzie
It’s a wonderful field. Headley will win, partly because she was excellent and partly because voters want to give something to “Aida,” which is racking up an immense pile of box-office gold. But Mazzie was also something special. Even so, remember that it may be in Audra McDonald’s contract that she wins a Tony every time she comes up to bat.
BEST DIRECTION
OF A PLAY
Will win: Michael Blakemore
Should win (probably): Michael Blakemore
Blakemore will win because he’s not going to win for best director of a musical, but all four nominees stand a chance, especially if the voters want to give a welcoming Tony nod to one of the productions otherwise neglected.
BEST DIRECTION
OF A MUSICAL
Will win: Susan Stroman
Should win: Michael Blakemore
Now the formidable Stro. Hit-wise, it has been her Broadway season, and she is nominated for both “Contact” and “Music Man,” so she could block herself out and let in the worthy Blakemore, or even Lynn Taylor-Corbett for “Swing!” But my guess is that voters will concentrate on making “Contact.”