The Patriots hit a different level when the calendar turned to December.
The Jets know that better than most, the first of New England’s late-season victims in a 45-3 rout. The Patriots followed that with a 36-7 mauling of the NFC North champion Bears. Two weeks later, they blasted the Bills 34-3, and even though there finale was meaningless, the Patriots still hammered the rival Dolphins, 38-7.
In between those four games was another win that came by a much-closer margin. The Patriots edged the Packers, 31-27 on Dec. 19 in New England.
Despite losing, the Packers laid out a game plan the Jets must follow if they have a chance to avenge that horrifying loss and advance to the AFC Championship. It’s a game plan the Jets have the personnel to follow; the question is, do they have the mindset? In order to beat the Patriots, the Jets and Rex Ryan must admit to themselves they are not as good as the Patriots.
The element of surprise
The Packers came into the game in disarray following a 7-3 loss to the Lions that cost them QB Aaron Rodgers, who went out in the second quarter against Detroit with a concussion. Any chance the Packers were given was forgotten with Matt Flynn starting for Rodgers against the Patriots. But Packers coach Mike McCarthy stunned the Patriots by starting the game with an onside kick that led to a field goal and a 3-0 lead.
The Jets don’t have to do an onside kick, but an early trick play or scheme would be a smart idea to grab momentum. The Patriots will come in plenty confident; the Jets would be well-served to put a dent in that determination.
The big play
After the Patriots took the lead 7-3, the Packers responded with a Flynn to James Jones 66-yard touchdown pass. This kept the Patriots from pushing their lead to double digits and making the Packers a one-dimensional passing team.
The Jets have the weapons to attack a Patriots defense that has been playing over its head. WRs Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards are capable of burning a mostly inexperienced Patriots secondary. The biggest disparity between the two teams comes at quarterback with the Patriots’ Tom Brady far superior to the Jets’ Mark Sanchez. But Sanchez is better than Flynn, who of his 83 career passes, 37 of them came in that game. Sanchez did not show that in the Jets’ wild-card win over the Colts, including missing a long pass to Edwards that could have put the game away.
Keep Brady on the sidelines
The most obvious and most important point for the Jets.
The Packers held the ball for an astounding 40:48 of their game against the Patriots. The Packers kept the ball with a combination of short passes and a surprisingly effective running game. This shows another potential weakness the Jets are capable of exploiting. The Packers are 25th in the NFL at 3.8 yards per carry, and that was their exact average against the Patriots. But it was effective enough to control the ball with 38 attempts. The Jets (4.4 yards per carry) have a better running game and the ability to move the ball with short passes to Holmes, WR Jerricho Cotchery and TE Dustin Keller.
This is how the Jets beat the Colts in the second half on Saturday — by controlling the ball with long touchdown drives.
Avoiding the big mistake
Despite everything that went right for the Packers that night, they still lost the game because of two key plays that turned a 17-7 Packers lead to a 21-17 Patriots advantage:
First was the famous 71-yard kick return by Patriots OL Dan Connolly that set up a New England touchdown a minute before halftime. On the Packers’ first possession of the second half, Patriots S Kyle Arrington returned a Flynn interception 36 yards for a touchdown.
The Jets need to avoid those type of mistakes, but follow the rest of the Packers’ game plan if they want to pull the upset on Sunday.