It’s that time of year, where football fans start breaking down NFL rosters and preparing for their fantasy draft.
Over the next few weeks, The Post’s Fantasy Tracker will be providing insight into the upcoming NFL season from a fantasy perspective to get you up to speed for your draft.
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The era of the running back is over, at least in terms of fantasy football.
There are very few running backs who can carry a fantasy team by themselves and this year there are serious questions surrounding all but three backs, all of whom are likely to go within the first five picks of your draft.
That isn’t to say that there is no depth at the position, because there is plenty, it’s just that you will now see names that used to be first round locks going in the third round and expectations will need to be scaled back.
To illustrate the decline in the significance of the position, in 2010, 14 running backs scored over 200 fantasy sports in standard leagues, that number dropped to six in 2011, likely thanks to the emphasis on the passing game as well as the shift to most teams operating within a running-back-by-committee system.
So who do you pick and where? Here’s the Tracker’s Top-10 running backs:
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1. Ray Rice – Baltimore Ravens – Rice led the league in yards from scrimmage last season and was the only back to top the 2,000-yard mark (2,068). After a slight dip in production from the 2009 season to 2010, Rice tallied career-highs in rushing yards (1,364), rushing TDs (12), receiving yards (704) and receiving TDs (three). Rice has settled his contract dispute with the Ravens and durability is not an issue as he has played in every game in each of the past three seasons and has carried the ball 852 times over that span. Rice is the safest pick of the running back bunch.
2. Arian Foster – Houston Texans – Foster doesn’t care about fantasy football, he’s made that much clear in the past, but he is still a darn good running back for fantasy owners to draft. Foster put up numbers that would have placed him in the top five of running backs this season regardless, but he’s No. 2 because his 1,224 rushing yards, 617 receiving yards and 12 total TDs came in just 13 games. Foster’s arguably the top back in the league, but there are some injury issues that arose last season and he does have a very serviceable backup in Ben Tate.
3. LeSean McCoy – Philadelphia Eagles – To say McCoy made a titanic leap last season would be an understatement. McCoy watched as his rushing total jumped over 225 yards and his rushing attempts went from 207 to 273 in his third season in the NFL. While McCoy’s 1,624 total yards were a slight drop from a year ago, he more than doubled his scoring output, collecting an NFL-best 20 TDs. McCoy scoring 20 times may be a bit unrealistic, but he should come close to 1,750 total yards and 15 total TDs.
4. Maurice Jones-Drew – Jacksonville Jaguars – The MJD saga is not going to end anytime soon and that is the main reason why the NFL’s leading rusher (1,606 yards) is ranked fourth rather than say No.1 or No. 2. The threat of Jones-Drew holding out is a very real one, and if you are going to spend a first-round pick on a player, you cannot have any doubts about his availability. That being said, Jones-Drew has scored at least 10 total touchdowns in four of his six seasons in the NFL and has missed a total of three games during that span. Later on in the first round, or early second-round, sure Jones-Drew is worth the risk, but not with at top-five selection.
5. Matt Forte – Chicago Bears – Forte was en route to having the best season of his career and consideration as the NFL MVP or Offensive Player of the Year before a knee injury derailed him. Forte was the focal point of the Bears offense last season, accounting for roughly 50 percent of Chicago’s offense. The Bears will continue to rely heavily on Forte this season, and his stock actually improves with the arrival of Brandon Marshall because opposing defenses will not be able to stack the box against the run. As always, there is the risk of Forte re-injuring his knee, but for a player who could top 2,000 total yards, it is well worth it.
6. Stephen Jackson – St. Louis Rams – Jackson is a workhorse and as consistent as they come, which is why he is ranked so high here. Don’t count on double-digit TDs unless Sam Bradford can open up the passing attack.
7. Chris Johnson – Tennessee Titans – CJ2K has watched his rushing attempts, totals and TDs drop in each of the past two seasons, leading some to believe that his 2,006-yard rushing season was a fluke.
8. Michael Turner – Atlanta Falcons – At some point you have to wonder if the high number of carries for Turner in Atlanta (1189 in four years) is going to take their toll. Turner is also 30 years old.
9. Adrian Peterson – Minnesota Vikings – I don’t care how much body fat you have or what your work ethic is like, Peterson is coming back from major knee surgery too soon at a position where lateral movement is crucial. Still, he is Adrian Peterson so yes, I’m saying there’s a chance.
10. Darren McFadden – Oakland Raiders – If healthy, McFadden is one of the best dual threat backs in the NFL. Oakland doesn’t have much else in terms of offensive weapons so McFadden will have to carry the bulk of the load.
Don’t Overpay: DeMarco Murray – Dallas Cowboys –Murray turned heads during the four-week span between Oct. 23 and Nov. 13, rushing for 601 yards and scoring twice. It’s highly likely that people will reach for Murray based on that stretch alone, and you should let them. After Week 10, Murray did not surpass the 100-yard rushing plateau and rushed for just 223 yards after that, missing the final three games due to injury. Murray may have been a flash in the pan, but with Felix Jones still on the team, he’s going to be part of a RBBC at best.
Buy Low: BenJarvus Green-Ellis – Cincinnati Bengals – Green-Ellis took a big step backwards last season in terms of yardage production, but he still scored 11 touchdowns and played in all 16 games. Green-Ellis is no longer part of a bad running back situation in New England, trading in his Patriots digs and joining the Bengals. The Law Firm will have the starting job all to himself in Cincinnati, and Bengals running backs have rushed for 1,000-plus yards in each of the past three seasons. Green-Ellis is a strong RB2 candidate in most standard leagues.
Sleeper – Cedric Benson – Green Bay Packers – Is it crazy to call a guy who has rushed for 1,000 yards in each of the past three seasons a sleeper? Maybe, but Benson is my running back sleeper. The Packers only recently signed the former first round pick and while it may take him some time to get up to speed, Benson is the odds-on favorite to be the starting back in Week 1. People will turn to the decline in yardage in his last two years in Cincinnati and the lack of TD output, but Green Bay’s offense is much better and has a history with producing solid running backs (Ryan Grant rushed for 1,200-plus yards in 2008 and 2009).