The day before every major event, The Post’s MMA expert Marc Raimondi breaks down what you should know in order to intelligently wager on the fight.
On Saturday, the UFC is in Montreal as Georges St-Pierre defends his welterweight title against Nick Diaz in the main event. Two other key welterweight fights will also take place – Carlos Condit vs. Johny Hendricks and Jake Ellenberger vs. Nate Marquardt.
Here are the lines from 5dimes:
MAIN CARD (PPV, 10 p.m.)
Georges St-Pierre (-525) vs. Nick Diaz (+415)
Johny Hendricks (-135) vs. Carlos Condit (+115)
Jake Ellenberger (-165) vs. Nate Marquardt (+145)
Nick Ring (-120) vs. Chris Camozzi (+100)
Mike Ricci (-335) vs. Colin Fletcher (+275)
PRELIMS (FX, 8 p.m.)
Patrick Cote (-175) vs. Bobby Voelker (+155)
Darren Elkins (-200) vs. Antonio Carvalho (+170)
Jordan Mein (-300) vs. Dan Miller (+250)
Daron Cruickshank (-130) vs. John Makdessi (+110)
PRELIMS (Facebook, 6:35 p.m.)
Rick Story (-420) vs. Quinn Mulhern (+335)
TJ Dillashaw (-650) vs. Issei Tamura (+475)
Rueben Duran (-135) vs. George Roop (+115)
Part of me is surprised about just how heavy a favorite St-Pierre is. Diaz is tough, durable and has excellent boxing. St-Pierre also has a questionable chin. But when you take into account the fact that GSP will be able to dictate where this fight takes place – on the ground – it’s clear why he gets that large of an edge. Diaz might have excellent submissions, but St-Pierre’s ground game is so dominant it’s unlikely Diaz will ever be in the position to slap something on. That’s why the champ is a more than 5-to-1 favorite and that’s why you should feel secure with him leading your parlay.
The next two welterweight fights are extremely close in odds. Hendricks is a small favorite over Condit. I don’t agree. Condit has more tools in the toolbox. He’ll avoid Hendricks’ powerful left hand and wrestling. Even St-Pierre agreed when I talked to him two weeks ago – “I think Carlos Condit is going to hurt Hendricks,” GSP told me. Take Condit as a straight bet. It’s a pretty solid one.
If Marquardt looks anything like he did in January against Tarec Saffiedine, Ellenberger should roll. I still feel like Ellenberger is a No. 1 contender in waiting even though his durability and chin have come into question. He’s just such a fantastic athlete. Marquardt is, too, which makes this a good fight. But Ellenberger should win and the odds are good enough to make this a straight bet.
Moving on with the parlay, the prelims have some nice candidates. Story, to me, is a lock against the inexperienced Mulhern. Story’s wrestling is overpowering. Dillashaw, a top prospect, is a heavy favorite over Tamura and should certainly be parlay fodder. Add in Mein, another up and comer, over gatekeeper Miller and you have yourself four nice choices. Not a huge payout because of the odds, but there’s some safety here.
The upset special is barely an upset this week. I like Roop over Duran. It’s almost a pick ’em with odds, but there aren’t many great choices. I considered Fletcher, but I think Ricci is more polished. If you want an underdog, albeit a small one, take Roop and feel pretty good about it.
BEST BETS
POT: 790.06 (+267.81)
(Original pot: $1,000)
Parlay
St-Pierre, Mein, Story, Dillashaw
$150 to win $190.14
Straight bets
Condit over Hendricks
$50 to win $57.50
Ellenberger over Marquardt
$82.50 to win $50
Upset special
Roop over Duran
$20 to win $23
LOOKING BACK
Finally. The cold streak has ended. UFC on Fuel TV 8 was big for the BEST BETS. The parlay of Diego Sanchez, Dong Hyun Kim, Takeya Mizugaki and Hyun Gyu Lim came through, albeit barely. Sanchez and Lim were controversial victories.
Yushin Okami came through with the upset special over Hector Lombard and Brad Tavares beat Riki Fukuda. The only loser was Stefan Struve, who was concussed by Mark Hunt and knocked out in the third round.