Mavericks vs. Jazz prediction, odds: Luka Doncic injury spells trouble

From the betting lines to the predictions for Mavericks vs. Jazz — everything hinged on the status of Dallas’ All-NBA superstar Luka Doncic.

Despite the fact that Doncic was “feeling great” during his pregame shootaround, per ESPN’s Tim MacMahon, fellow ESPNer Adrian Wojnarowski reported that he will not play in Game 3 against Utah, which is set to tip off 9:00 p.m. ET.

This will be a tough game for the Mavericks without their star player. In Game 2 they got a herculean effort from Jalen Brunson. However, on the road, this will be a tall task to recreate.

Mavericks vs. Jazz odds

Odds provided by BetMGM

Spread: DAL +7.5 (-110) vs. UTA -7.5 (-110)

Moneyline: DAL +240 vs. UTA -300

Total: Over 209.5 (-110) | Under 209.5 (-110)

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Mavericks vs. Jazz prediction

With no Luka Doncic tonight, the game is going to come down to the Jazz’s ability to actually defend the perimeter against Spencer Dinwiddie and Brunson.

Donovan Mitchell, for whatever reason, appears uninterested in guarding the other team’s best player. This leaves an older Mike Conley, Jordan Clarkson, and not much else to throw at perimeter players.

This is a recipe for disaster more often than not from a defensive standpoint. This isn’t to say that the Jazz will lose this game as big favorites. In fact, I think they win with Doncic out. If you want to take the Mavs, do not do so pregame. You will likely get a juicy moneyline in the third quarter and the Jazz are terrible at holding leads.

Moreover, I am targeting the total in this game. Currently, it is set at 209.5. Earlier in the day, Action’s pro systems reported that 90% of the money was on the ‘over’ in this game.

Mavericks vs. Jazz prediction: Over 208.5 (FanDuel)

NBA player prop bet: Michael Conley ‘over’ 1.5 three-pointers made (-120)

Can’t take full credit here as a pal of mine and fellow ‘player propster,’ Giles Gallant, posted this on his Twitter account earlier today.

As he stated in his tweet linked above, Conley is over this number in 72% of his home games. As a side note, role players typically get a boost at home when compared to on the road in playoff games. I am in agreement with Giles that this line should be set at 2.5.