Creighton is matching the preseason hype after brutal stretch

Ignore the mediocre record. Get past the ugly six-game losing streak in late November and early December. 

Creighton is healthy and looking every bit like the Final Four contender it was pegged as this preseason. Ryan Kalkbrenner has found his game, after a non-COVID-19 illness limited him significantly in the early portion of the season, and the pieces have fallen into place. 

The 13-8 Bluejays have won seven of their last nine games — six of them by double figures — and treated Big East leader and No. 13 Xavier like it didn’t deserve to share the same court on Saturday in Omaha, Neb. Remember, this team was ranked ninth in the preseason, nearly beat No. 6 Arizona in the Maui Invitational and played 10th-ranked Texas extremely tough in Austin. 

What followed was that six-game losing streak, three of which came without Kalkbrenner, creating doubt about the preseason pick to win the Big East. But Creighton has flipped the narrative, finding the form that led so many experts to believe it was a Final Four contender and is now just one game in the loss column off the conference lead. 

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The 7-foot-1 Kalkbrenner, last year’s Big East Defensive Player of the Year, has been dominant defensively, producing 26 blocked shots over the last seven games and anchoring the 21st-ranked defense by efficiency in the country according to KenPom.com, and the No. 17 offense is hitting its stride. The entire starting five of Kalbrenner, Arthur Kaluma, Trey Alexander, Ryan Nembhard and Baylor Scheierman average in double figures. While Creighton is only shooting 35.1 percent as a team from deep, during this recent stretch they Bluejays are up to 38 percent, and trending in the right direction. 

It will be interesting if Creighton continues to perform like this how the selection committee seeds it. Right now, it is a 10-seed in Bracket Matrix, the website which averages out 85 tournament projections. Part of that is the Bluejays have eight losses. But it should be factored in that three of those setbacks — to BYU, Arizona State and No. 16 Marquette — came without Kalkbrenner. With him, they are 13-5, owning victories over Arkansas, Xavier and No. 23 Providence. Their numbers are considerably better across the board with the big man in the lineup. Over these last nine games, Creighton is ranked fourth nationally by the analytics-based website BartTorvik.com, which breaks down individual segments of the season. The Bluejays’ NET rating is an impressive 18, and their 6-7 record in Quad 1 and 2 games is likely to get even better. 

This would be a scary eight- or nine-seed. It certainly looks like the team everyone expected to be a March threat. 

Built Fordham tough 

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It was easy to dismiss the robust 12-1 non-conference schedule when you consider Fordham played the worst slate of opponents in the country outside of league play, according to KenPom.com. November and December featured a heavy helping of cupcakes in The Bronx. 

Lately, though, the Rams are much harder to ignore. They have now won four straight league games and five of six, vaulting themselves into fourth place in the Atlantic 10, two games behind conference leader Saint Louis. They are coming off consecutive double-digit victories over St. Bonaventure and George Washington, the two teams directly behind them in the standings. 

Athletic director Ed Kull made a smart move by elevating Keith Urgo to keep the roster intact after Kyle Neptune left for Villanova, and in his first season as a head coach, Urgo has exceeded expectations. At 5-3 in the Atlantic 10, Fordham is off to its best start to the conference season since opening up 6-2 in 2007.

Game of the Week 

No. 14 Gonzaga at No. 22 Saint Mary’s, Saturday, 10:30 p.m. 

Gonzaga’s run of West Coast Conference regular-season crowns is in real jeopardy of ending at 10. A loss Saturday night in Moraga, Calif., and the Zags would be two games back of the Gaels, who have won 13 of their last 14 games. It is a fascinating matchup, pairing Saint Mary’s defense, which is ranked fourth nationally in efficiency, against Gonzaga’s fast-paced attack, which is fifth. 

Seeding 

1. Purdue, Tennessee, Arizona, Alabama 

2. Houston, Kansas, UCLA, Texas 

3. TCU, Kansas State, Gonzaga, Marquette 

4. Virginia, Xavier, Baylor, Iowa State 

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Stock Watch 

Big 12, Up 

If there was any doubt which conference is the nation’s best this year, and really there shouldn’t have been, Saturday ended any such debates. In the annual Big 12-SEC Challenge, the former manhandled the latter, 7-3. That included eighth-place Oklahoma lambasting second-ranked Alabama by 24, unranked West Virginia upsetting No. 15 Auburn and No. 9 Kansas winning at Kentucky by nine. The league has six of its 10 teams ranked in the top 18 of the NET, and nobody lower than 69. Every road game is a Quad 1 opportunity. The Big 12 is an absolute minefield. 

Hofstra, Up

The best mid-major in the area resides in Hempstead, Long Island. That was evident on Saturday when Hofstra upset No. 18 College of Charleston on the road to snap the Cougars’ 20-game winning streak and move within a single game of the CAA lead. Hofstra and second-year coach Speedy Claxton have now won seven of their last eight games, and six by double figures. Most impressive about this win, besides the quality of the opponent, was that Pride star and CAA Preseason Player of the Year Aaron Estrada only managed two second-half points after scoring 23 in the first half, but Hofstra won with defense — Charleston was held to 5 of 31 shooting from 3-point range — and balance. Four players scored in double figures.

Chris Holtmann, Down

Ohio State’s coach has reached seven straight NCAA Tournaments, the first three at Butler and last four leading the Buckeyes. That streak, however, is in doubt. Skidding Ohio State, losers of seven of its last eight games, has fallen to 12th in the Big Ten. That includes losses to conference punching bags Nebraska and Minnesota, along with Saturday’s ugly 16-point setback at Indiana. While the Buckeyes’ metrics are strong — they have a NET ranking of 29 and their 2-8 record in Quad 1 games and 3-7 Big Ten mark need to be significantly remedied. 

Kenny Payne, Down

It keeps getting worse for Payne, the losses piling up and more ugly history being made. Louisville has now lost five straight games by an average of 15.8 points, and is not only 0-10 in the mediocre ACC but also 2-19 on the season. The Cardinals are headed to the program’s first single-digit win season since 1941-42. Saturday, in an ugly loss at Notre Dame, they were down by 22 points at halftime, the school’s largest halftime deficit against an opponent with a losing record. If Louisville can’t beat conference bottom-feeder Georgia Tech on Wednesday at home, it may not win again. A 21-game losing streak to close out Payne’s disastrous first season is not out of the question. It has already dropped 10 in a row, and still has to face seventh-ranked Virginia twice, along with trips to Duke, Miami and Pittsburgh. It’s mind-boggling to think there were Knicks fans who wanted him to replace Tom Thibodeau last year while he was on the team’s bench as an assistant coach.