Wagner chief is ‘dead man walking’ after Russia coup attempt: experts

Wagner Group commander Yevgeny Prigozhin is a “dead man walking” after leading a rebellion that was seen as Russian President Vladimir Putin’s biggest threat to power in 23 years, experts said Monday.

Ian Bremmer, president of the geopolitical risk firm Eurasia Group, said it is clear that Prigozhin will be executed over his attempted coup, despite public assurances from the Kremlin that Putin pardoned and exiled his former ally for quickly abandoning the insurrection.

“[Prigozhin is] kind of dead man walking at this point,” Bremmer told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.” “I would be very surprised that he’s still with us in a few months’ time.

“Putin has imprisoned and assassinated people for far less than what Prigozhin has done to him,” Bremmer noted. “It’s inconceivable to me that Putin will allow him to live any longer than is absolutely necessary.”

Former Russian army leader and intelligence officer Igor Girkin added on Telegram, “I don’t think that all Wagner commanders and fighters deserve to be shot.

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“But to hang ‘Cook’ for the rebellion and the murder of our officers is simply necessary for the preservation of Russia as a state,” he wrote, referring to Prigozhin’s nickname as “Putin’s Chef” because he secured lucrative government catering contracts and served meals in the Kremlin.

The predictions come as it surfaced that Prigozhin apparently realized almost immediately that his march to Moscow was a mistake when he tried calling Meduza reports.  

Meduza’s sources surmised that Prigozhin’s decision to suddenly turn tail also was fueled by the fact that Wagner did not receive the support it expected from Russian soldiers, with Prigozhin initially claiming that “half” of the Kremlin’s troops would side with him on Friday night.

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That prediction failed to come true by Saturday, with Wagner marching alone before agreeing to stop about 120 miles outside Moscow.

Bremmer noted that the lack of support for Wagner demonstrated that despite being humiliated by the coup, Putin still has a massive hold on power in Russia.

“While Putin was unprecedentedly tested, there was not a single high-level defection from the Russian military, from the Russian government or among the Russian oligarchs — so anyone that believes that Putin is suddenly … on the brink of leaving power, also needs to recognize that’s not where we are,” he said.

Prigozhin broke his silence Monday to claim that the mutiny was actually nothing more than a protest aimed against Russia’s Defense Ministry, which he said sought to dissolve his group and orchestrated an attack that killed 30 mercenaries.

“We started our march because of an injustice,” Prigozhin said in the 11-minute audio recording. “We went to demonstrate our protest and not to overthrow power in the country.”

As part of the rebellion, Prigozhin demanded that Moscow kick out Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, as well as allow Wagner to serve autonomously from the Kremlin and receive additional funding.

Meduza’s experts said the Kremlin viewed the demands as vague and strange and that any hopes it would comply were shattered over the consequences of the mutiny, which left Prigozhin without a place to belong in Russia.

Prigozhin allegedly agreed to a deal brokered by Belarus that would see him exiled to the neighboring country as he and his men would be pardoned.

But Franak Viacorka, a senior adviser to exiled Belarus opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, said Prigozhin won’t find himself welcomed in their country.

“He doesn’t see [Belarus] as an independent nation, so I think the Belarusian army and Belarusian society will not accept him,” Viacorka told CNN of the Wagner Group commander.

Meanwhile, the whereabouts of Prigozhin, and the fate of his troops, remain up in the air.

Russian state media TASS reported Monday that Wagner Group recruitment centers in Tyumen and Novosibirsk have resumed conscripting fighters.

But the state-run news agency also noted that a criminal case against Prigozhin is still active, citing a source close to Russia’s Prosecutor General’s Office.

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Girkin’s comments about what he would do to Prigozhin were echoed by Andrei Gurulev, a retired Russian general and current lawmaker who has rowed with the Wagner chief in the past. Gurulev said Prigozhin and his righthand man, Dmitry Utkin, deserve “a bullet in the head.”

“I firmly believe that traitors in wartime must be executed,” Gurulev told the Associated Press.

With the Russian struggle leaving Moscow temporarily shaken, Ukrainian forces have capitalized on the moment and had immediately launched a series of coordinated counterattacks on the eastern front.

Ukraine Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar, who said the strikes had proven fruitful over the weekend, revealed Monday that her forces have liberated the village of Rivnopil in the contested Donetsk region.