Everything you need to know about the Iowa Caucus 2024, and why it matters

DES MOINES, Iowa — After months of rampant speculation and frenzied campaigning, Republican voters will weigh in for the first time Monday evening about who the party’s 2024 presidential nominee should be.

Although Iowa provides just 1.6% of the delegates to be awarded at July’s Republican National Convention, the Hawkeye State has developed an outsize reputation for separating the contenders from the pretenders.

Here is everything you need to know about the Iowa Caucus.

What is the Iowa Caucus?

In contrast to primary elections, in which voters simply head to the polls and cast a private ballot in a booth, Iowans gather across the state in local “caucuses” to select a nominee.

Specific rules of these meetings vary from place to place, but each will have at least two items on the agenda — holding a binding vote for the Republican presidential nominee and electing delegates to attend county Republican conventions later this year, the first step in electing delegates to attend the national GOP convention in Milwaukee.

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At each caucus, speeches will be made on behalf of each of the major candidates before the vote is carried out by secret ballot, typically by writing a name on a blank piece of paper.

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To participate in a caucus, voters must turn 18 by the Nov. 5 general election. There is no allowance for absentee voting, except among a handful of military and overseas voters.

Only registered Republicans can participate in Monday’s caucus, however, Iowa permits voters to register or change their party affiliation on caucus night.

Because of the public nature of caucuses, Iowa presents a unique logistical challenge for presidential campaigns, who recruit volunteer caucus captains to help ensure their backers brave the weather to make their voices heard.

What time does the Iowa Caucus begin?

The Republican caucuses convene statewide at 7 p.m. local time (8 p.m. Eastern).

Why is Iowa first?

After the contentious 1968 Democratic National Convention in Chicago, party bosses decided to make their nominating process more transparent, in part by spreading out the schedule in each state.

Because Iowa awards delegates through a lengthy process of precinct caucuses, district and county conventions and a statewide convention, officials decided to start the earliest of any state.

The 1972 Democratic caucus was the first Iowa leadoff contest of the modern campaign era, but the state came to national prominence in 1976, when Jimmy Carter unexpectedly secured the most support on the Democratic side.

In that year’s Republican caucus, which was also held before any other state, former California Gov. Ronald Reagan came within two percentage points of shocking incumbent President Gerald Ford, kicking off a lengthy fight for the nomination that went all the way to the convention in Kansas City.

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Does the winner of the Iowa Caucus usually become the Republican nominee?

No.

The GOP has held nine contested caucuses in Iowa since 1976. Of those nine winners, four have gone on to obtain the nomination. They are Ford in 1976, Bob Dole in 1996, George W. Bush in 2000, and Trump in 2020.

For George H.W. Bush in 1980, Dole in 1988, Mike Huckabee in 2008, Rick Santorum in 2012, and Ted Cruz in 2016, an Iowa win proved to be a false dawn for their campaign.

This year, Iowa’s dynamic is completely different, with a former president running to reclaim the office he lost four years earlier for the first time in 132 years.

Who will win the Iowa Caucus?

It would be stunning if Trump did not come out on top Monday night, as polls have consistently pegged him as the leader in Iowa since he declared his candidacy in November 2022.

In fact, the most suspense on Monday may come from the battle for second place between former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Another benchmark to watch is whether Trump, 77, receives 50% support, which no Republican candidate has achieved in the modern caucus era.

Arctic weather

Complicating matters for candidates and caucus-goers alike are forecasts for frigid temperatures on Monday.

According to Fox Weather, the forecast high for Des Moines is negative-4 degrees Fahrenheit, with temperatures dropping into the teens below zero by the time voters head out to caucus sites in the evening.

The deep freeze comes on the heels of a blizzard that prompted multiple campaigns to scrap events or hold them remotely on Friday and throughout the weekend.

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What about the Democrats?

Despite Democrats being first to elevate Iowa to its leadoff status, the party has ditched having the Hawkeye State kick off its nominating calendar.

Instead, South Carolina, the state that propelled President Biden to the 2020 nomination, will hold the first official Democratic primary on Feb. 3 — to the chagrin of officials in New Hampshire, who have set their primary for Jan. 23 in defiance of the Democratic National Committee.

Iowa got bumped following a chaotic 2020 Democratic caucus, during which a software fiasco led to a days-long delay in reporting the official results.

This time around, Democrats in Iowa will hold some caucuses Monday night to conduct party business, but the actual voting will take place via absentee presidential preference cards that can be submitted through March 5.

Biden is not expected to face significant opposition to securing the nomination at the Democratic convention in Chicago in August.

What comes next?

After Iowa, Republican presidential hopefuls will head to New Hampshire on Jan. 23 for the first-in-the-nation primary.

Will Iowa ever get rid of the caucus system?

There has long been chatter about ditching the caucus system for a rudimentary primary election in Iowa.

Critics say the requirement that caucus-goers show up in person limits attendance among rural voters as well as the ailing and elderly, providing a less representative result.

However, Republican Iowa voters who spoke to The Post this week showed no inclination to scrap what has been a tradition in the state dating back to the 1800s.

“It’s historical, come on,” said Grace Kline from Des Moines.

“No, there is nothing wrong with the caucus system,” agreed Ty Dunker, of Urbandale. “The problem is four years ago, the Democratic National Party screwed up.”

Other states that have caucuses

Besides Iowa, there are more than a dozen caucus competitions on the 2024 itinerary for Republicans.

This includes nine states — Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, North Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming — and four territories: the American Samoa, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, and the US Virgin Islands.

Nevada and the US Virgin Islands are the next caucuses on the docket, with both slated for Feb. 8.

Iowa has 40 delegates up for grabs out of the 2,469 to be awarded by the Republican National Committee, which will be doled out proportionally.