Ranking MLB’s top World Series contenders with Phillies off to dream start

The Phillies have the dream.

It is difficult to get any long-term free-agent deal right. Philadelphia, to this point, has hit on Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner and Zack Wheeler (and, until this season, Nick Castellanos).

Homegrown players such as Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott and Ranger Suarez have graduated from excellent co-stars to more than that.

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Seemingly inconsequential trades for Brandon Marsh, Christopher Sanchez and Edmundo Sosa have proven to be quite consequential.

Try to get all of this correct at one time. Then throw in the right manager for this group in Rob Thomson. Plus, an owner in John Middleton willing to spend and create a sense of loyalty and camaraderie by re-upping at high-end prices with pitchers who have given the team their soul, Wheeler and Aaron Nola, and you have a chance to have magic.

So far in 2024, the Phillies have magic, which has included the best 50-game record (36-14) since the 116-win Mariners of 2001. It included reaching the 51-game mark at 37-14 thanks to a 29-6 run heading into the weekend — the organization’s best 35-game stretch since 1892.

Neither of those teams won the championship, by the way. A reminder that this is still only two months for the Phillies. Philadelphia had somehow played just six of 51 games against teams with winning records even before facing the NL-worst Rockies over the weekend. They probably will have to address their bullpen.

Nevertheless, the Memorial Day weekend has traditionally been the place on the baseball calendar — the one-third mark — to make the first worthy assessments of the season. And the Phillies have been the best team of the first two months, looking like a legitimate threat to end the Braves’ six-year hold on the NL East and — after winning the NL title in 2022 and losing in the NLCS last year — taking the next step to champions.

Here is the rest of my top five:

2. Yankees: What the Yankees’ rotation has done without Gerrit Cole is stunning. They have five qualified starters with an ERA-plus of 120 or better. Over a full season, that has happened just twice in MLB history — last by the 1947 Cardinals. It won’t happen here either. Because eventually Cole will bump one of the current starters. And even without that, it seems unsustainable — though I would have never believed it possible even for one-third of a season.

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Do the Yankees get Cole back in full? Do they keep the core of this lineup healthy and humming as it is now — the additions of Juan Soto and Alex Verdugo, the growth of Anthony Volpe, the revival of Giancarlo Stanton and the standard for Aaron Judge have elevated the offense. They probably will have to add at least one reliever before the deadline.

3. Dodgers: They were second in the majors in runs per game behind the Phillies, and third in runs allowed per game behind the Yankees and Royals. They are going to cakewalk to a division title and, thus, have experimental time to see if they can get Clayton Kershaw and Dustin May back for their staff, and get Gavin Lux and Chris Taylor right to make an already powerful lineup even more scary. And they have the resources to fix whatever will need fixing before the July 30 trade deadline.

4. Orioles: They were on a similar path through 49 games (31-18) as they were last year (32-17) when they won 101 and the AL East. They had a MLB-best seven players with an OPS-plus of 115 or better (minimum 100 plate appearances) — and I still believe Jackson Holliday will help them at some point. Corbin Burnes has been the ace they hoped for when they obtained him from Milwaukee, and Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez have come off the IL pitching well.

I am just not going to trust Craig Kimbrel as the last line of bullpen defense for a championship team. If there is an organization with the minor league heft to make a godfather deal with the A’s for their all but unhittable closer Mason Miller, Baltimore would be front of the line. And Miller has so many control years that it would not just be an all-in move like Burnes.

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5. Braves: I think there is a more of an implosion factor with Atlanta than any of the other top four, mainly because of worries about the rotation performing around ace Max Fried. Spencer Strider was lost for the season after needing Tommy John surgery. Chris Sale, acquired in a trade, and Reynaldo Lopez, via free agency, have been godsends through one-third of the season. But what of the marathon? The injury-prone Sale, 35, had thrown a combined 151 innings over the past four years. Lopez has been a reliever since 2020. Charlie Morton is 40.

This is an organization that knows how to win, and those types of teams find answers, but the farm is thin. So an offense that was a blunt force last year needs to produce better. That begins with the reigning NL MVP, since no qualified player had lost more OPS points from 2023 (1.012) to 2024 (.690) than the .322 of Ronald Acuna Jr.

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I still gave Atlanta the nod over Cleveland, Kansas City and Milwaukee. For historic Braves reasons, but also because though the two Central divisions are better, I need to see more to truly believe. I still think the 2023 World Series participants have a chance to be excellent, but the Diamondbacks and especially defending champion Rangers have to get starting pitching healthy — in Texas’ case there were seven starters on the IL as the weekend began: Cody Bradford, Jacob deGrom, Dane Dunning, Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Tyler Mahle and Max Scherzer. The Mariners have a superb rotation, but led an AL West in which no club had a positive run differential.

That makes the Astros the Michael Myers team of 2024 — the lack of a strong opening by Seattle and Texas has left the door open to Houston, who on May 8 had the AL’s second-worst record at 12-24 and since then were tied with the Yankees (10-4) for the second-best AL mark.

Overall, they were still just 22-28. So they are the most disappointing team through Memorial Day, too. Yet, of my top five in that category — also the Blue Jays, Mets, Reds and Tigers (I thought Cincinnati and Detroit had chances to take major steps forward this year) — the Astros have the best chance to work their way to the top five two more months from now at the trade deadline.