UFC 309 odds, predictions: Full fight card picks for Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic

First, Mike Tyson.

Then, Jon Jones.

Combat sports fans received a treat this weekend with Tyson returning Friday night to fight Jake Paul and UFC 309 on Saturday, headlined by Jon Jones facing Stipe Miocic for the heavyweight title.

If Jones does indeed defeat Stipe Miocic at Madison Square Garden, will he just ride off into the sunset instead of fighting Tom Aspinall?

It’s the question everyone wants answered.

But first, we dive into UFC 309 for our best bets and full card predictions.

UFC 390 predictions

Jon Jones (-625) vs. Stipe Miocic (+455)

Jones looked untouchable in his debut at heavyweight against Cryil Gane nearly two years ago.

A few injuries and postponements later, and Jones returns against Miocic, who also is making his return.

He hasn’t fought since 2021, when Francis Ngannou brutally knocked him out.

Expect Jones to grapple and kick Miocic throughout this fight.

Miocic has done a wonderful job in his career using his technical boxing to get him out of trouble, and he really didn’t face trouble against in Ngannou until he let his guard down and got knocked out.

The issue for Miocic is that he it’s unlikely that he possesses the same athleticism he did in the past.

Jones will have a major speed advantage in this bout, which eventually will carry him to victory.

I’m not expecting this to be a short night at the office, though.

The official prediction is that Jones eventually gets in close, lands elbows, cuts up Stipe’s face and gets him out of there, whether by doctor’s stoppage or TKO.

We’re betting Jones to win in Over 1.5 rounds (-135) and a smaller wager on the fight going the distance.

PICK: Jones wins in over 1.5 rounds (-135, FanDuel)

Charles Oliveira (-245) vs. Michael Chandler (+200)

Michael Chandler is an adrenaline dump waiting to happen every time he enters the octagon.

This isn’t a knock on his cardio — it’s a knock on his composure.

He simply gets too excited in the octagon.

Chandler has a great chance to win this fight in the first round since the first time he fought Charles Oliveira, he clearly won the round.

However, Chandler chin checked him with a left hook to end the fight by knockout.

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Oliveira has so many skills at his disposal to get a win here.

The official prediction is Chandler gets caught in mount and Oliveira reigns down elbows to win by TKO early in the third round.

As for betting, target the fight starts Round 2 prop at -182, and ladder it all the way up to fight goes to decision at +590 odds at FanDuel.

This fight is highly unlikely to go to decision, so don’t risk more than 1.5 units here and make sure you break even if the fight does start Round 2.

PICK: Fight starts Round 2 (-182, Fanatics) | Ladder up (fight starts Round 3, over 2.5 rounds, starts Round 4, goes to decision) – 1.5 units to win 4.1

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.