Duke vs. Ole Miss odds, prediction: Gator Bowl pick, best bet Thursday

The Duke Blue Devils have been beating expectations all season long, and they have an opportunity to do so again on Thursday.

Matching up with Ole Miss, the Blue Devils will waltz into enemy territory as an expected favorable crowd for the Rebels will be on hand in Jacksonville, Fla., at EverBank Stadium.

Duke has several opt-outs in this game thanks to the transfer portal. As such, the Blue Devils (9-3) are massive 17.5-point underdogs.

Starting quarterback Maalik Murphy and backup Grayson Loftis have opted out of this game after entering the transfer portal.

Coach Manny Diaz brought in new quarterback Darian Mensah for a wild $8 million NIL deal, although he won’t play in this game.

Third-string quarterback Henry Belin IV, a former three-star recruit in the class of 2022, will start for the Blue Devils on Thursday.

That’s quite the downgrade at quarterback compared to what they are facing on the other end, as Jaxson Dart jumps in for Ole Miss (9-3) and will not opt out of this game. Duke’s defense should still give Dart some trouble as they are the No. 17 defense in the FBS after allowing just 4.7 yards per play and a solid 3.9 yards per carry allowed.

All things considered this is a hard way to end a great season for the Blue Devils, their preseason Over/Under win total was 6.5 and they snagged nine wins en route to this well-earned bowl appearance. Their losses against SMU (overtime) and Miami are nothing to sneeze at, either. Still, their offense was not good during the year. They were rated 92nd in the FBS and put up just 5.2 yards per play.

Mississippi had the third-best yards per play figure in the nation (6.8), so expect a win behind Dart’s strong quarterback play.

Duke vs. Ole Miss odds

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Duke	+17.5	+550	Over 52.5
Ole Miss	-17.5	-800	Under 52.5

This line previously opened at 9.5 and has been bet up eight more points since the opt-outs that Duke was forced to deal with in this game.

As long as this game doesn’t reek of an exhibition, as Michigan vs. Alabama did on New Year’s Eve, you’re probably flirting with a wager on Ole Miss -17.5.

Knowing that this is a possibility, we’re going to target the Under.

While we know Ole Miss could rout Duke, they still have a strong coaching and defensive scheme thanks to coach Diaz. Remember that the defensive unit is not decimated by transfers, either.

Duke vs. Ole Miss prediction: Under 51.5 total points (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)

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Why Trust New York Post Betting

Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.