Florida vs. Houston odds, prediction: March Madness national championship game best bets

Multiple media outlets still list Walter Clayton Jr. as a projected second-round pick. Virtually every mock draft predicts the Florida superstar will be a post-lottery selection. 

If only he were an inch taller and three years younger, Clayton might have the same invisible ceiling as Frank Ntilikina.

If only there were similar-sized stars in the league who should have been drafted higher, like Damian Lillard, Donovan Mitchell and Jalen Brunson. 

And we wonder why there are so many draft busts. 

Florida (-1.5) over Houston (-102, BetMGM)

The spread accurately reflects the reality that very little separates two teams worthy of cutting down the net.

It isn’t hard to envision Houston doing what Hakeem Olajuwon, Clyde Drexler and Elvin Hayes could not, capturing its first national title in school history.

It isn’t hard to imagine the nation’s best defense playing to its potential, outworking and outmuscling the Gators, as it most recently did against Duke, and has done for the better part of the past decade under Kelvin Sampson. 

But the more trustworthy offense — ranked second nationally — is the better bet in the biggest game. 

While Houston has suffered three of its four losses this season to top five offenses, Florida has gone 5-1 against top-10 defenses.

While Houston has gone 2-4 in games it allowed at least 69 points, Florida has scored fewer than 70 points just once this season, averaging 89.5 points during its current 11-game win streak.

The Cougars make life difficult for their opponents, but also for themselves, ranking 292nd in 2-point percentage and 320th in free-throw rate. Houston makes up for it with its aggression on the offensive glass, but Florida’s deep and long frontline can withstand the pressure of the undersized Cougars, ranking seventh nationally on the boards.

Houston’s top-ranked perimeter shooters will also struggle to match their season average against the nation’s sixth-ranked 3-point defense, which holds opponents under 30 percent. 

History isn’t on Houston’s side.

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There hasn’t been a national champion in 11 years with a defense that’s more efficient than its offense. Seven straight title game underdogs have lost outright. And the Final Four’s most emotional semifinal winners in recent history eventually ended in heartbreak. 

The buzzer-beaters of Gonzaga’s Jalen Suggs and San Diego State’s Lamont Butler preceded title-game blowouts. North Carolina ended Coach K’s career, then collapsed against Kansas. Wisconsin ended Kentucky’s undefeated season, then fell to Duke. Aaron Harrison’s string of heroics for Kentucky led to an upset against UConn. 

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Houston pulled a miraculous comeback against Duke because of its poise. Florida is just as experienced, but even better in the biggest moments because of Clayton, the country’s top option in the most important possessions, coming off the first back-to-back 30-point games in the Elite Eight and semifinals since Larry Bird.

I could live with losing to Houston. But I couldn’t forgive myself for betting against the best player in the tournament. 

PICK: Florida -1.5 (-110, BetMGM)

This season: 24-31 

2011-24 record: 378-340-12

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Why Trust New York Post Betting

Howie Kussoy has long been the New York Post’s main handicapper in college basketball (since 2011) and college football (since 2013).