Stanley Cup Final pick: Oilers vs. Panthers Game 1 prediction, odds, best bets

The Florida Panthers and the Oilers will renew acquaintances in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final on Wednesday night in Edmonton. 

Though both teams have changed since the Panthers lifted the Cup after Game 7 in 2024, their strengths and weaknesses remain very much the same. 

The Panthers, making their third straight trip to the finals and looking to repeat as champs, are like dogs on a hunk of meat.

Florida wants to get pucks behind you, impose their will physically, and never let you off the mat. 

The Oilers, looking to avenge their heartbreaking loss in last year’s finale, want to skate circles around you and let their dynamic duo of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl be the difference. 

Edmonton’s attack is built on speed, creativity, and skill, while Florida’s is built on force and execution. 

Both teams have been excellent defensively throughout the playoffs. 

The goaltending matchup for Game 1 is fascinating.

Sergei Bobrovsky has been stellar for the Panthers in the tournament, while Stuart Skinner started horribly, got replaced by Calvin Pickard, and was thrown back into the starting role when Pickard got injured. 

Skinner has been lights-out over the past month. 

Given how last year’s series went, Florida took a 3-0 lead and then Edmonton stormed back before losing in Game 7, you’d imagine that both teams will want to forego the usual pleasantries that a Game 1 can present. 

There will be no feeling-out process in this best-of-7. The Oilers will dread the possibility of falling behind the Panthers again, and Florida will need to be ready for the pace that Edmonton will bring from the drop of the puck. 

That should create a more helter-skelter, frenetic pace to Game 1 than you’d think you’d see in such a high-pressure environment. 

You’d think that a back-and-forth affair would favor the Oilers, but it’s the Panthers who should thrive in that kind of environment. 

Florida can beat you in a number of ways, but the Cats are incredibly adept at keeping their composure amidst chaos.

They’re not going to chase you around and try to force the issue, but will sit back and wait for their opportunity to hit on the counter. 

They trust that Bobrovsky and their defense will keep them in the game until they can strike. 

Given how I project this game to play out — with these teams trading chances and Florida coming out the better for it — why not build a same-game parlay correlated to that script? 

The first leg is to back the Over 1.5 goals in the first period at -134. I think this thing flies off the handle early. 

With that being the case, we’ll also throw in the Over 6.5 goals, as a wide-open first period should lead to more of the same in the next 40 minutes. 

From there, we’ll add Panthers -1.5 at +250. If this game is going to be full of chances, there’s a good chance that it will be decided by multiple goals. 

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To add some serious juice to this nearly 100/1 parlay, we’ll add Anton Lundell (+400) as an anytime goal scorer for the Cats.

Lundell’s line has been superb throughout the postseason, and he should get a favorable matchup with both coaches playing cat and mouse with Aleksander Barkov, McDavid and Draisaitl. 

Finally, we’ll back McDavid to record Over 4.5 shots on goal at +320. McDavid leads the playoffs with 59 shots, and if things do go off the rails, he should have every chance to clear this mark. 

If you wrap all five legs together in a same-game parlay, it would pay out 97/1. 

Not a bad way to start the Stanley Cup Final.