2025 BMW Championship odds, picks, predictions: Three long-shot bets for second leg of FedEx Cup playoffs

Patrick Roy, the legendary goaltender and current head coach of the New York Islanders, is a big believer in the “Midnight Rule.” 

Roy allows himself and his team until midnight each night to celebrate their wins or sulk in defeat before turning the page.

We’re a bit looser with our guidelines here at the Post, so we’ll take one more victory lap for picking Justin Rose to win last week’s St. Jude Championship at 100/1. 

With that out of the way, we move on to the 2025 BMW Championship at Caves Valley in Baltimore.

The second leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs, the BMW Championship, is a no-cut event featuring a field of 50 players.

Scottie Scheffler is the clear betting favorite at +280 odds and is coming off a T3 at TPC Southwind last week.

The World No. 1 has finished inside the top 10 in 14 of 17 starts in 2025. 

Rory McIlroy, who skipped the St. Jude, is the second-favorite at +800 and the only other player with single-digit odds.

Xander Schauffele, Tommy Fleetwood and Ludvig Aberg round out the top five, according to the betting board.

Given its elite, exclusive field, you’d think the BMW Championship always goes to one of the big dogs, but last year’s winner was Keegan Bradley, who teed off as a 66/1 outsider. 

With that in mind, let’s see if we can’t land another big score this week.

2025 BMW Championship picks

Harry Hall (60/1, BetMGM)

It looked like Harry Hall was going to be in the thick of the proceedings at TPC Southwind after shooting 64 on Thursday.

Unfortunately, the scally-cap wearing Englishman fell off the boil with a 72 in Round 2 and was never able to mount a serious charge, ultimately finishing T22.

Considering his start, you’d have hoped Hall to post a better result, but the big picture still paints him as a player trending in the right direction. 

Not only has Hall made 15 cuts and finished 22nd or better in nine of those outings, but he leads the PGA Tour in sub-par rounds (66) and birdie average (4.55) this season. 

Nick Taylor (110/1, bet365) 

A trendy long-shot pick at the Open Championship, Nick Taylor missed the cut, ending a terrific stretch of golf where he finished no worse than T23 and posted two top-15s (including a fourth-place finish at the Memorial) in six starts.

Taylor didn’t look much sharper last week at the St. Jude Championship, but his season-long numbers would suggest this is more of a blip than anything too concerning. 

The Winnipeg native has a win, three top-10 finishes and 11 top-25s in 21 starts this year, and he’s proven that he has the mettle to swing with the big boys like he did at the Waste Management in 2023.

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Jhonnatan Vegas (140/1, bet365)

Caves Valley should be a track that plays to the bombers, and Jhonnatan Vegas fits that bill. 

An elite driver of the ball, the Venezuelan gatecrashed the top 50 to qualify for this event thanks to a splendid weekend at TPC Southwind.

Vegas shot 6-under in the final 36 holes to finish T14 and punch his ticket to a course that should suit his game quite nicely.

Although his form going into TPC Southwind was unremarkable, he seemed to find his game in Memphis by hitting 39 of 56 fairways, which was one of the best marks in the field.

If Vegas brings that kind of accuracy off the tee with him to Caves Valley, he will be a real threat to outrun his long odds.

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Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.