UFC 319 best bets: Dricus Du Plessis vs. Khamzat Chimaev odds, picks, predictions

UFC 319 should be box office.

Headlining the 13-fight card is middleweight champion Dricus Du Plessis, who faces off against Khamzat Chimaev, long considered the best fighter in the division.

Of the 13 fights we have to choose from, only 10 of them have a full array of props to choose from, and six of those 10 are expected to end inside the distance.

The entire card will be streamed on ESPN beginning at 6 p.m. ET, before switching over to pay-per-view at 10 p.m.

UFC 319 predictions

Dricus Du Plessis vs. Khamzat Chimaev

This is perhaps the most anticipated main event that we have had in years.

Khamzat Chimaev isn’t just an A-list prospect with mountains of hype behind him.

He’s perhaps the most frightening grappler we’ve seen in the UFC. He literally made Robert Whittaker’s jaw cave in during his last fight, which came in October 2024.

Chimaev takes on an extremely well-rounded and talented grappler in his own right, as Du Plessis profiles as a better defensive grappler than anyone Chimaev has faced.

Chimaev will shoot for a takedown inside of a minute and has finished five of his last six UFC fights inside the first round.

If this fight were to get past the first round, Du Plessis figures to have some cardio advantages as well as an edge in the striking department.

From a betting perspective, there’s zero reason to bet on Du Plessis until he proves he can survive the first round with Chimaev.

Du Plessis is as sure a bet as any to lose the first round and then have his championship instincts take over in what could be a dog fight in the latter rounds.

The best strategy is to target Du Plessis live after Round 1, assuming his odds climb from the +195 range to +300 area.

PICK: Du Plessis live after round 1 (+300 or better)

Lerone Murphy vs. Aaron Pico

Once upon a time, Aaron Pico was the biggest prospect in MMA. He was expected to dominate the competition in Bellator before moving through the ranks, but that’s not how things have turned out.

Pico has sputtered since then, as Bellator mismanaged his career, but he’s still expected to be a mega star in the UFC, despite his 13-4 professional record.

To get a co-main event spot in a massive PPV card is a testament to his hype.

Now, that’s all well and good, but Pico hasn’t fought since Feb. 2024 and is fighting easily his toughest test to date.

Pico semi-surprisingly comes in as a -185 favorite against Lerone Murphy, who is undefeated in his own right with victories over Josh Emmett and Dan Ige.

Murphy (16-0-1) should be a challenging test for Pico in terms of striking, although Pico should have a big advantage in the grappling department if he chooses to go that route.

Pico has been knocked out three times in 17 fights, and this fight profiles as a step up in competition for him.

It’s impossible to play him at a favorite price, and I prefer to target Murphy by KO/TKO at +810.

PICK: Lerone Murphy by KO/TKO (+810, Fanatics Sportsbook)

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UFC 319 picks

Geoff Neal vs. Carlos Prates: Prates ML(-265) for parlays

Jared Cannonier vs. Michael Page: Page by decision (+120, FanDuel)

Tim Elliott vs. Kai Asakura: Asakura by KO/TKO (+180, BetMGM)

Gerald Meerschaert vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk: Meerschaert by submission in round three (50/1, bet365)

Jessica Andrade vs. Loopy Godinez: Godinez by decision (+105, FanDuel)

Chase Hooper vs. Alexander Hernandez: Hernandez ML (+260, BetMGM)

Edson Barboza vs. Drakkar Klose: Klose by decision (+250, DraftKings)

Bryan Battle vs. Nursulton Ruziboev: Fight does not go the distance (-120, BetRivers)

Karine Silva vs. Dione Barbosa: Fight goes the distance (-225, FanDuel)

Alibi Idiris vs. Joseph Morales: Pass

Baysangur Susurkaev vs. Eric Nolan: Nolan ML (+550, DraftKings)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.