Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz odds, prediction: ATP Cincinnati best bet, picks

Depending on how you look at it, Monday’s final between Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz is either a great sign for men’s tennis or a warning about where things are headed.

Ranked Nos. 1 and 2 in the world and the winners of the past seven Grand Slams, Sinner and Alcaraz are leaving very little room for anybody else in this era.

Combined, Sinner and Alcaraz have gone 74-9 in 2025, and they are 43-2 in their past 45 matches.

The scary part is that the two juggernauts are just entering their primes.

Sinner turned 24 years old on Saturday, while Alcaraz is 22.

All of this is to say it’s not a surprise that top-ranked Sinner and Alcaraz are meeting in the finals of the 2025 Cincinnati Masters, one of the biggest non-Grand Slams on the tennis calendar and the warmup event for the U.S. Open.

Perhaps what is a little surprising is how little rust the two stars have shown in this tournament after long layoffs.

Both Sinner and Alcaraz opted to skip the Canadian Masters, and neither played in any other hard-court events during the North American swing, meaning that this is the first event for both since the Italian defeated the Spaniard in the 2025 Wimbledon Final on July 13.

Neither player has really put a foot wrong in this tournament, but Sinner has been the more dominant of the two finalists.

The 24-year-old from the Austrian border has not dropped a set in his first five matches, and he’s only lost 30 games in that span.

That’s an average of three games lost per set.

Incredible.

Alcaraz has dropped a couple of sets in his run to the final, but he’s not given us any reason to worry, especially since he’s had a tougher path to this point than Sinner.

While Sinner has yet to face a top 25 opponent in Cincinnati, Alcaraz dispatched world No. 11 Andrey Rublev in the quarterfinals and defeated No. 3 Alexander Zverev in straight sets in the semifinals.

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It seems that the tennis world expects this rivalry to follow a pattern.

Sinner, for the most part, will come out ahead on hard courts, while Alcaraz will have the better of the head-to-head on the clay.

I’d push back a little bit on that in both directions, as both players have proved that they can handle any conditions that are thrown at them.

But it’s that perception that is going to allow you to get Alcaraz at a decent price in matches on Sinner’s preferred surface, and vice versa.

That’s the situation that’s developed for Monday’s final, as Sinner is currently sitting as a -175 favorite to win the match.

Sinner should be the favorite for this match — he did play Alcaraz off the court in the Wimbledon Final — but the odds should be tighter.

At this point, we’re splitting hairs when these two generational talents meet, and that means there is going to inevitably be value on the underdog.

In this case, that underdog is arguably the best player in the world.

The Play: Alcaraz +140 (DraftKings)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.