UFC Fight Night predictions: Johnny Walker vs. Zhang Mingyang odds, bets, picks

UFC Fight Night hits the road Saturday for middle-of-the-night violence in China.

While many in the United States will be sleeping, the UFC will be on the ground in Shanghai with 12 fights on the docket. A loaded preliminary card begins at 3 a.m. ET while the main card begins at 6. Half of the bouts are projected to end inside the distance.

Last week was one of the best events we’ve had from a betting perspective. Aside from losing the main event live bet, we nailed Lerone Murphy by KO/TKO (+810) as well as Alexander Hernandez moneyline (+260) and Drakkar Klose by decision (+250).

Here are my UFC Shanghai best bets:

Johnny Walker vs. Zhang Mingyang

Zhang, the hometown favorite, receives a big-time chance to steal a victory against a ranked opponent.

Walker is an excellent athlete and has power in his hands, but that’s about where his positive traits end. His defense is nearly nonexistent on the feet, defending just 44 percent of strikes thrown at him. Worse, he’s been knocked out in two straight fights.

The UFC hopes Zhang is a title contender, and I agree that he’s a strong prospect.

I’m actually surprised this line isn’t higher. It’s not as if Walker is a technical dynamo who can download Zhang’s deficiencies and find the holes. The Brazilian seemingly runs into knockouts on a regular basis.

The Over 1.5 rounds comes in at +215, one of the highest prices you’ll ever see in that market. Normally, I’d be interested in targeting that, but I can’t get there in this case.

Back Zhang to win in the first round, as I suspect Walker will continue to make tactical errors in there.

Pick: Zhang to win in the first round (-118, bet365). 

Brian Ortega vs. Aljamain Sterling

In a five-round co-main event, former bantamweight champion Sterling faces Ortega at featherweight.

Sterling told MMA Fighting this week he thinks it’s “stupid” that this fight is five rounds, although this may benefit him in the long run.

Ortega, a two-time featherweight title challenger, is not a striker and has honestly looked like a punching bag on his feet on different occasions throughout his UFC career.

My issue with backing him is that he’s the same fighter he was five years ago and hasn’t improved enough on the feet.

Sterling could be in trouble if Ortega gets him on his back, but he’s never been submitted in competition and trains with good friend and current bantamweight champion, Merab Dvalishvili.

He will have edges in striking and wrestling, a rarity in this division.

Pick: Sterling wins and fight to start Round 3 (-150, Fanatics). 

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Rest of the card

Sergei Pavlovich vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta: Cortes-Acosta decision only (+130, DraftKings).

Sumudaerji vs. Kevin Borjas: Borjas +3.5 rounds (-195, DraftKings).

Taiyilake Nueraji vs. Kiefer Crosbie: Crosbie by decision (17/1, Fanatics).

Maheshate vs. Gauge Young: Maheshate moneyline (+110, DraftKings).

Charles Johnson vs. Lone’er Kavanagh: Johnson by decision (+280, FanDuel).

Rongzhu vs. Austin Hubbard: Hubbard by decision (+370, FanDuel).

Michel Pereira vs. Kyle Daukaus: Pereira by KO/TKO (+180, FanDuel).

Yizha vs. Westin Wilson: Under 1.5 rounds (-163, BetRivers).

Xiao Long vs. SuYoung You: You moneyline (-120, BetMGM).

Uran Satybaldiev vs. Diyar Nurgozhay: Pass.