UFC Noche best bets: Full card picks, predictions for prelims, main on Fight Night

It’s a massive weekend in combat sports.

The UFC returns this weekend for Mexican Independence Day on the same day that boxing brings a massive card featuring Canelo Alvarez vs. Terrance Crawford.

Below, we break down full fight card picks and predictions for UFC Noche.

The entire card begins at 3 p.m. ET on ESPN+ as it goes live from San Antonio with a 14-fight card.

UFC Noche best bets, predictions

Diego Lopes vs. Jean Silva

This one should be a banger.

Diego Lopes comes off a title chance against Alexander Volkanovski, a fight he lost in five rounds. Now he faces a serious power-puncher in Jean Silva.

Silva has won six in a row, five straight by finish.

Technically speaking, these are two serious power-punchers that, overall, lack some defensive characteristics that you’d prefer to have.

For starters, Lopes does not really defend low-leg kicks, something we saw plenty of from Volkanovski, a master of the craft.

Silva isn’t perfect either.

During defensive grappling scenarios, Silva is known to crumble a bit against wrestlers, although he’s clearly improved in that area.

We will know early whether that improvement is legitimate, as Lopes is highly likely to rest him early.

I suspect that these power punchers will actually cancel each other out, and this fight goes much longer than is currently projected.

THE PLAY: Fight goes the distance (+255, BetRivers)

Rob Font vs. David Martinez

Rob Font has been in the game for a long time.

David Martinez comes in on short notice, replacing Raul Rosas Jr. in this fight.

Martinez has looked like a solid striker in the UFC, although he’s fought just twice, and none of them have the level of experience that Font does.

Font has fought some of the world’s best bantamweights: Jose Aldo, Cody Garbrandt, Sergio Pettis, and many more.

Martinez last fought Saimon Oliveira (16-6).

Fight Matrix ranks Font as the No. 14 bantamweight in the world regardless of promotion, while Oliveira and Martinez, for that matter, are nowhere near that ranking.

The massive step up in competition for Martinez is problematic, and I suspect that Font wins this one by decision with ease.

THE PLAY: Font by decision (+135, Fanatics Sportsbook)

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UFC Noche full fight card picks

Diego Lopes vs. Jean Silva: Fight goes the distance (+255, BetRivers)

Rob Font vs. David Martinez: Font by decision (+135, Fanatics Sportsbook)

Rafa Garcia vs. Jared Gordon: Jared Gordon (-240 for parlays)

Kelvin Gastelum vs. Dustin Stoltzfus: Gastelum over .5 takedown when lines release

Alexander Hernandez vs. Diego Ferreira: Anthony Hernandez (+100, Fanatics)

Santiago Luna vs. Quang Le: Fight goes the distance (+100, BetMGM)

Jose Daniel Medina vs. Dusko Todorovic: Pass

Claudio Puelles vs. Joaquim Silva: Joaquim Silva moneyline (+105, DraftKings)

Tatiana Suarez vs. Amanda Lemos: Goes the distance (+138, FanDuel)

Jesus Aguilar vs. Luis Gurule: Jesus Aguilar moneyline (+190, Caesars Sportsbook)

Zachary Reese vs. Sedriques Dumas: Fight goes the distance (+450, ESPN BET)

Alessandro Costa vs. Alden Coria” Costa by decision (+155, ESPN BET)

Montse Rendon vs. Alice Pereira: Fight goes the distance (-200, Fanatics)

Rodrigo Sezinando vs. Daniil Donchenko: Pass

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.