New Jersey early vote reveals a Jack Ciattarelli surge — and an Election Night toss-up

Early voting in New Jersey’s hotly contested governor’s race between Republican Jack Ciattarelli and Democrat Mikie Sherrill has given her a healthy head start in banked ballots.

But Republicans are easily outperforming their early 2021 turnout in the last gubernatorial election — when Ciattarrelli narrowly lost to Democrat Phil Murphy by just 84,000 votes.

If GOP voters keep up the pace, Election Night will be a nail-biter.

In the first five days of early voting, 825,382 New Jerseyans cast mail-in and in-person ballots in the marquee race: 449,190 Democrats, 230,907 Republicans and 145,285 independents.

That means Republicans must close a gap of over 219,000 votes from now until Election Day if they are to seize the State House from Democratic control.

But in New Jersey politics this isn’t surprising, and it’s far from an insurmountable lead.

In fact, Sherrill may actually be underperforming in the early vote. Here’s why.

Traditionally in the Garden State, Democrats amass a huge lead in mail-in ballots, while Republicans prefer to vote in person at the polls. That’s true again this year.

But in 2021, Murphy carried a substantial 47% vote-by-mail advantage over Ciattarelli into Election Day — but today Sherrill, with a 41% edge, isn’t doing nearly as well.

Then there’s early in-person voting. In 2021, Murphy won that category handily, besting Ciattarelli’s total by 12.2%.

But as of now, Democrats have just a 2% advantage in early in-person voting — with Ciattarelli far outpacing his previous performance.

Currently, county-by-county in-person early turnout is mirroring 2024 patterns, when President Donald Trump turned several reliably blue New Jersey counties red for the first time since the Reagan years.

As in 2024, Republicans won Day 3 of early voting, while keeping pace with Democrats on Days 4 and 5.

The raw vote margins this year are less than in 2024, but that’s to be expected: Turnout for a gubernatorial election typically hovers around 40%, compared to last year’s presidential election turnout of around 65%.

Analysts are watching specific counties to get a sense of voter enthusiasm.

Democratic machine counties like Hudson, Essex, and Union, as they typically do, boast the highest levels of in-person early voting turnout, and Jersey City, with a competitive mayoral race on the ticket, is giving the party an extra boost.

Reliably red counties at the Jersey Shore, however, are showing up big for Ciattarelli —and for the GOP, a massive turnout in Ocean County could be a game-changer.

The county’s Lakewood Township, and particularly its strong Jewish population, has grown exponentially in recent years.

For the first time ever the Vaad, an influential group of local Orthodox rabbis, joined the rest of the area’s Jewish councils to make a united endorsement for Ciattarelli — an unprecedented show of solidarity from one of the state’s most important Jewish organizations.

In the first three days of early voting, Lakewood had one of the highest in-person voting totals in the state, eclipsing its 2024 early-vote turnout so far.

With 65,000 registered Lakewood voters, Republicans are counting on high turnout here and in surrounding towns to offset the Democrats’ advantages in big cities like Newark and Jersey City.

Compared to the 2021 governor’s race, Republicans are overperforming in swing areas like Passaic County, which went red for Trump last year.

Passaic Republicans so far have improved 17 points on net since the same point in 2021.

Additionally, a surge in Latino endorsements for Ciattarelli may help drive support for him in traditionally Democrat and urban areas.

Republicans also feel bullish about Election Day, when GOP voters are typically more comfortable showing up at the polls.

In 2021, Ciattarelli won Election Day by 12% and lost the race by 3%.

As of today, thanks to Republicans’ improved early turnout, he’d only need to win the Election Day vote by 11% to declare victory.

And keep in mind, New Jersey has registered over 166,000 new Republican voters since the last gubernatorial election — and the national party is far more invested in this year’s election.

In the end, though, this election will be decided by independent voters, who make up approximately 35% of the electorate.

While recent polls show an overall dead heat, Ciattarelli holds a 6-point lead among independents, according to a recent Quinnipiac University poll, with 48% support compared to Mikie Sherrill’s 42%.

Campaigns are often won by a candidate’s momentum in the closing week.

While Sherrill had a head start, it’s Ciattarelli who is charging full speed ahead.

Jeanette Hoffman is the president of Marathon Public Affairs and a two-decade veteran of New Jersey politics and government.