Colts’ Super Bowl odds booming through unexpected breakout season

Remember when the AFC South was the backwater of the NFL? 

How about a time when we were debating who between Daniel Jones and Anthony Richardson would be less volatile as the Colts starting quarterback?

The Colts, who opened at 100/1 to win the Super Bowl, are now listed at 11/1 at FanDuel after posting 38 points in back-to-back weeks and improving to 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS.

Their win total, which was originally 7.5, has jumped to 12.5, the highest of any other team heading into Week 9.

Indianapolis has transformed the most pedestrian division into must-see football with a weekly fireworks show that no one saw coming. 

It’s almost comical to think that one year after the Giants watched Saquon Barkley depart to post the second-best rushing season in history and win a Super Bowl, they have witnessed Jones marshal the Colts to the third-most points (270) through eight games in franchise history. Johnny Unitas is the only quarterback to have topped that in 1964 and 1958, respectively.

Jones’ career season is on pace for over 4,300 passing yards and 28 touchdowns. He’s completed 71 percent of his passes and projects a CPOE, a metric that contextualizes raw completion percentage by accounting for difficulty factors, of 5.1 percent.

Beyond Jones’ revival, it’s Jonathan Taylor who has ignited the franchise as a game-breaking force out of the backfield. 

Those who drafted Taylor in fantasy have been treated to an NFL-leading 106.5 ypg and 14 total touchdowns throughout eight games. Taylor, who is milking a career-high both in ypc (5.9) and receptions (3.1), is the odds-on favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year at -225 at DraftKings.

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Taylor is listed at 18/1 to win NFL MVP, which is the seventh-shortest odds available. A running back has not won MVP since Adrian Peterson in 2012. Peterson averaged 131.1 ypg and scored 13 total touchdowns in a season the Vikings finished 10-6 and second in the NFC North. 

In Shane Steichen’s third year coaching the Colts, he’s turned what was once a predictable offense on its head through tempo, spacing and misdirection. This has translated to high conversions across the board, from early downs to the red zone and scoring on 60.8 percent of drives. 

Steichen is favored at even money to win Coach of the Year.

What remains to be seen is how well the secondary can hold up in stiffer playoff competition. The Colts are giving up 271.6 passing yards.

They’ve made up for it by defending effectively against the run and not giving away points easily, but the offense would need to continue at this blistering rate if they can’t prevent chunk plays through the air.

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Why Trust New York Post Betting

Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.