Vanderbilt vs. Texas prediction: Odds, picks, best bet for SEC headliner

It’s now or never for the Texas Longhorns.

The preseason No. 1 has been a disappointment thus far, but the Longhorns still have a shot to make it to the SEC Championship and College Football Playoff. They just need to win out, starting on Saturday against No. 9 Vanderbilt (7-1).

The Longhorns are 2.5-point favorites over the Commodores on Saturday, though that line could bounce around quite a bit depending on the status of quarterback Arch Manning.

Vanderbilt vs. Texas odds, prediction

Manning was listed as questionable by Texas earlier in the week, but there is an argument to be made that his presence in this game will be overrated.

The Longhorns offense has been pedestrian with Manning at the helm. Texas ranks 50th in points per game, 70th in yards per play, and 88th in red-zone scoring rate. According to SP+, the Longhorns boast the 53rd-best offense in the country. Not great, Arch.

What is great, however, is the defense. Texas grades out as the third-best defensive team in the country, per SP+, and is holding opponents to just 4.2 yards per play, eighth-best in the nation.

That defense should give the Longhorns more than a fighting chance, with or without Manning.

The defense drives the bus in Austin, but in Nashville, it’s the opposite. Diego Pavia is a legitimate Heisman candidate for the Commodores, and he’s turned this offense into one of the best units in the country. The Commodores rank ninth in points per game (37.4), sixth in yards per play (7.0), and third in points per play (0.615).

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The defense lags behind quite a bit, but they’ve rarely had to be the story since Pavia and the offense keep posting crooked numbers.

But on Saturday, against the third-best defense in the country, Vandy will likely need to step up without the ball.

Texas should be able to neutralize Pavia, Vanderbilt’s difference-maker, which pushes me towards a bet on the Longhorns as short favorites at home.

The Play: Texas -2.5 (-115, DraftKings)

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Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.