Penguins vs. Maple Leafs prediction: Odds, picks, and best bet for Monday’s NHL clash

The Pittsburgh Penguins and Toronto Maple Leafs have both defied preseason projections in very different ways.

The Penguins were expected to be one of the worst teams in the NHL this season, but they’re off and running with an 8-3-2 record through 11 games.

The Maple Leafs, meanwhile, have been one of the most underwhelming teams in the league through the first month of the season. The Buds were expected to take a step back after losing Mitch Marner in the offseason, but a 6-5-1 start against a soft schedule is a disappointment for Toronto.

Penguins vs. Maple Leafs odds, prediction

Toronto’s record is not a cause for alarm on its own, but when you look at the entire picture, things get pretty concerning.

The Maple Leafs are giving up way too many chances off the rush, which explains why they’re giving up 3.67 goals per game (27th in the NHL) and why their goaltenders have struggled to an .872 save percentage (29th).

In previous seasons, the Maple Leafs could overcome some defensive deficiencies, but their power play has been abysmal to start, and they’re not creating enough scoring chances at 5-on-5, either.

Toronto is creating the 17th-most expected goals per game and 19th-most high-danger scoring chances at even strength this season. Not great.

The Penguins don’t have the best statistical profile themselves, but they’re playing well enough to give themselves a chance every night. In some games, it’s the goaltending; in others, it’s the stars doing the heavy lifting.

For a team with higher expectations or shorter odds, you’d be concerned about regression. But you’re still getting the Penguins at big numbers, which makes that less of a worry.

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Despite the start, the Leafs are still getting some love in the betting market. Toronto is -185 to win on Monday night, putting the Penguins at a tempting +154.

We’ll back Pittsburgh to keep the good times rolling in Ontario on Monday.

The Play: Penguins +154 (FanDuel)

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Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.