UMass vs. Akron prediction, odds: MAC Picks, best bet Tuesday

Point spreads can make high-profile matchups even more compelling, or they can provide the sole reason to watch a certain game.

The latter is what we have Tuesday in the MAC.

Winless UMass visits 3-6 Akron as a 10.5-point underdog with a total of 49.5 points. 

The Zips have not been a double-digit favorite against an FBS opponent since 2016, but the Minutemen warrant such.

Four of their five losses to FBS schools this season have come by at least 18 points.

Their road conference losses have come by 35 and 36 points.

UMass ranks dead last of 136 schools in overall efficiency. That includes the worst offensive efficiency and second-worst on defense.

Akron is by no means a juggernaut, but it has shown levels of competency.

The defense ranks 93rd in efficiency and the offense ranks 127th, although that is slightly misleading. 

Senior quarterback Ben Finley missed the Toledo game, which skewed the numbers after a total of 79 passing yards. He is the sole reason to back the Zips.

Finley just threw for 230 yards and two touchdowns in an upset win at Buffalo as a 10-point underdog. He was also a reason they were a road favorite against Ball State. 

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Meanwhile, UMass continues to play hard despite the 0-6 record.

Itt is 1-3 against the spread (ATS) in conference play with the lone cover against Buffalo.

That game was as bizarre of an outlier as it could have possibly been. The Bulls tallied 18 more first downs and 284 more passing yards but needed a second-half comeback to secure the win.

Ultimately, the Minutemen just lack the talent to hang with any sort of competent team.

Injuries have relegated them to a third-string quarterback, freshman AJ Hairston. Laying double digits with Akron is not a recipe for sustained profit, but this situation does justify it.

I have a 74-60-2 ATS record in this Post sports section, and my next play is Akron -11.

The Play: Akron -11 (-105, FanDuel)

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Why Trust New York Post Betting

Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.