The question behind Yankees’ $22 million Trent Grisham predicament

To qualify, or not to qualify?

That is the question the Yankees must answer with Trent Grisham ahead of Thursday’s deadline to make qualifying offers to pending free agents.

The fact that it is even a decision for the Yankees to make shows just how impactful Grisham was this season, given that around this time last year, there were questions about whether he would even be tendered a contract for 2025.

But now the Yankees have a $22.025 million predicament on their hands, with Grisham the only real candidate among their free agents to get the qualifying offer.

Cody Bellinger is not eligible because he already received one earlier in his career, while reliever Devin Williams likely pitched his way out of getting one with some struggles in his first, and likely only, season in pinstripes.

If the Yankees extend the qualifying offer to Grisham, 29, they would receive draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere.

But there is also the chance that he accepts the offer — it is likely a higher average annual value than he would receive on the open market, but he would also likely get more money overall in a multiyear pact — before they know whether they are going to be able to re-sign Bellinger.

Bringing back both Bellinger and Grisham would make for a crowded outfield alongside Aaron Judge, further clouding Jasson Domínguez’s future with the club if he does not have a lane to start regularly next season, not to mention blocking a path for top prospect Spencer Jones to potentially find his way to The Bronx in 2026.

Of course, if Grisham were to accept the qualifying offer, it does not mean the Yankees could not trade him if they are also able to re-sign Bellinger.

The risk in not extending the qualifying offer to Grisham is that if the Yankees miss out on Bellinger — there should be plenty of suitors for his services, as he is the second-best outfield option on the free-agent market behind Kyle Tucker — they could be left scrambling to fill the hole in center field. Beyond Grisham and Bellinger, the market for the position is not overflowing.

Former Yankee Harrison Bader opted out of his Phillies deal Wednesday and could become an option as a premium defender and right-handed bat.

The question may come down to whether the Yankees believe the 2025 version of Grisham is sustainable.

Across the first six seasons of his big league career, the former first-round pick hit just .213 with a .697 OPS and 70 home runs. That included 2024 with the Yankees, after being included in the Juan Soto blockbuster, when he served as their fourth outfielder and batted .190 with a .675 OPS across 76 games.

But Grisham finally enjoyed a breakout season this year, earning 124 starts in center field (with Bellinger accounting for the other 38) while batting .235 with a .811 OPS and 34 home runs, double his career-high.

The left-handed hitter, who credited his turnaround to making improvements mentally, emerged by the end of the season as the Yankees’ regular leadoff hitter against right-handers.

With a strong knowledge of the strike zone, Grisham consistently put together the kind of patient at-bats the Yankees want to be known for, even when he went through stretches where the hits stopped coming.

His .348 on-base percentage was the third-highest among everyday Yankees players, trailing only Judge and Giancarlo Stanton.

Grisham was also steady defensively, though his advanced metrics took a step back. Was it a sign of things to come as he gets older or just a one-off? The two-time Gold Glove winner registered minus-11 Defensive Runs Saved, which was the fourth-worst mark among 17 qualified center fielders.