Houston vs. UCF prediction: Odds, picks, and best bets for Friday’s Big 12 showdown

The Houston Cougars will need to pick themselves up off the mat on Friday night.

The Cougars were one of the surprise packages in the Big 12 through nine weeks, but a disappointing loss to West Virginia derailed the momentum behind Houston.

The Cougars can still get to the Big 12 Championship if they win out and get help, but things look a lot bleaker than they did at this time last week.

We’ll see if Willie Fritz can get his team to move on for a crucial game at Central Florida on Friday.

Houston vs. UCF odds, prediction

While Houston’s loss to West Virginia was a bummer, it’s hard to paint this season as anything but a success. The Cougars went 4-8 in each of the past two seasons, so getting seven wins from their first nine games in 2025 is a big step forward.

It should be noted that Houston’s schedule has been pretty tame to this point, but you can only beat the teams in front of you, and the Cougars did score noteworthy wins against Colorado, Arizona, and Arizona State.

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Houston’s soft schedule and underwhelming statistical profile could explain why the market isn’t showing the Cougars much love in a tilt against one of the worst teams in the Big 12.

UCF is at home on Friday night, but the Knights have been largely unimpressive in 2025. Their four wins have come against North Carolina A&T, UNC, West Virginia, and Jacksonville State, and they’ve got just one victory in their last five tilts.

The stats don’t paint the rosiest picture for UCF, but most of that is down to a disappointing offense. The Knights are scoring just 21.4 points per game (98th in FBS) and averaging 5.6 yards per play (61st), which is squandering the efforts of a defense that is 24th in points allowed and yards per play conceded.

Houston’s defense isn’t going to wow anybody, but the Cougars should be able to handle a rudderless offense in a game that should mean a lot more to the visitors than the home team.

It’s a tricky thing to factor in motivation, especially in a game with a line this tight, but Houston should have enough to keep its season alive at The Bounce House on Friday night.

The Play: Houston moneyline (-112, FanDuel)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.