Northwestern vs. USC prediction: Odds, picks, and best bet for Friday’s Big Ten clash

There may not be two conference rivals that are more different than USC and Northwestern.

The Trojans boast one of, if not the best, offenses in the country, but are just middling on defense. The Wildcats are the exact opposite. Northwestern is one of the lowest-event teams in the country, with a stingy defense and an offense that struggles to light up a scoreboard.

They say that styles make fights, so Friday’s tilt between No. 20 USC and Northwestern should be quite the spectacle.

Northwestern vs. USC odds, prediction

Lincoln Riley’s Trojans know what they need to do to have a chance at a Big Ten Championship: Win out. USC is currently 4-1 in the Big Ten and will almost certainly be required to go 4-0 against Northwestern, Iowa, Oregon, and UCLA to earn a trip to Indianapolis in a month.

It’s not the easiest path, but it’s doable.

However, USC can’t afford to overlook Northwestern, a team that prides itself on being a thorn in the side in these exact scenarios.

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The Wildcats already scored a season-defining win against Penn State, and they gave Nebraska all it could handle last week. USC is better than those teams, but the point remains. This Northwestern defense can level the playing field against anybody.

The problem is that Northwestern’s offense has a habit of squandering all the hard work its defense does. The Wildcats are averaging 19.7 points per game (107th overall) against FBS opponents, and they grade out as the 101st-best offense according to SP+.

If the defense can contain their opponents, the Wildcats have a chance, but the problem is that USC’s offense is a chore to slow down.

The Trojans are No. 1 overall in yards per play (7.6) and yards per game (507.4), and they rank as the third-best unit in the country, per SP+.

Slowing down Nebraska, Penn State, and Purdue is one thing, but holding the Trojans to a score that this moribund offense can keep up with is another entirely.

USC should be able to get enough traction on offense to get us to the window on Friday night.

The Play: USC -14.5 (-110, FanDuel)

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Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.