Meet the Best Picture Oscar Candidates: The Frontunners and Emerging Contenders in this Year’s Race

There is only one thing to remember when trying to predict Oscar season: there is no sure thing. Statistics are meaningless, festival buzz doesn’t always translate to the real world and it’s impossible to talk about the Academy as if it’s one hive mind. That won’t stop people from looking for early indicators to try and read the awards tea leaves. But how’s this for perspective: at this time last year, many people had written off “Anora” as having peaked too early, and no longer a real contender for the top prize. A few months later, it would make history by winning filmmaker Sean Baker four Oscars.

Beyond that, there’s a handful of strong movies that still have plenty of time to build buzz — and quite a few that have yet to be seen by wide audiences. Netflix has an embarrassment of riches this season, starting with a pair with impressive pedigrees: Guillermo del Toro’s “Frankenstein” and Noah Baumbach’s “Jay Kelly.” Both initially received warm welcomes on the festival circuit, but the lack of hyperbole had many perhaps underestimating them. What a difference a few weeks make. It was always unwise to bet against Del Toro — even “Nightmare Alley” landed a best picture nomination. And the crafts on the film are undeniable, which will garner massive below-the-line support. It also features a fantastic cast, with Jacob Elordi wowing viewers as the Creature.

“Jay Kelly” stars George Clooney as a famous actor reflecting on the choices that have led him to professional success and personal failure. It’s a film set in the industry — and voters love that — but it’s also a beautiful meditation on the roads not taken that only gets better with repeated viewings, something that is likely to happen when the film begins streaming on Netflix in December. Plus, the film’s stars — Clooney, Adam Sandler and Laura Dern — have only begun the press cycle and are already winning the charm offensive. And if ever a movie was made for a SAG ensemble nomination, it’s
“Jay Kelly.”

Netflix also has a pair of acclaimed dramas: Kathryn Bigelow’s “A House of Dynamite” (streaming now) and “Train Dreams,” a lyrical ode to an ordinary life that hits the platform Nov. 21. Both are impeccably made and performed and will have passionate supporters. As will Richard Linklater’s “Nouvelle Vague,” which details the making of Jean-Luc Godard’s “Breathless.” And while there hasn’t been much of a push for “Steve,” the Cillian Murphy-led drama about a school for troubled youth, Variety’s Peter Debruge called it “better than anything the streamer has pushed for best picture to date.”

Also bubbling under the surface are a handful of critically lauded foreign films. While one or two tend to break into the best picture race every year, this season has enough to make a majority of the list. Joachim Trier’s “Sentimental Value” seems a sure thing, but the odds also look superb for France’s Palme d’Or winner “It Was Just an Accident,” where former prisoners believe they’ve captured their torturer. Also gathering steam are Park Chan-wook’s dark satire “No Other Choice” and the Venice Grand Jury Prize winner “The Voice of Hind Rajab,” about the killing of a Palestinian girl. And Brazil’s political thriller “The Secret Agent” not only has strong buzz, but also a powerful lead performance from
Wagner Moura, who could find himself in the best actor race.

Of course, critics can champion a film as much as they want but there is no replacement for a genuine crowd-pleaser. That includes Apple Original Films’ Brad Pitt vehicle “F1,” which could fill a similar spot as “Top Gun: Maverick” in that it’s both a box office and critical success. (It also helps that both films were directed by Joseph Kosinski, who is overdue for some recognition.) And while Warner Bros. is juggling two major contenders already with “Battle” and “Sinners,” they also have the horror hit “Weapons,” a strong dark horse contender not just in the picture race but also for Zach Cregger’s original screenplay and supporting actress Amy Madigan.

Also looking secure with “Bugonia” and “Hamnet,” Focus Features has yet to release “Song Sung Blue,” starring Kate Hudson and Hugh Jackman as a couple who start a Neil Diamond tribute band. The feel-good true story is already charming industry audiences and could prove to be a sleeper hit. The same can be said for Searchlight’s upcoming “Rental Family,” starring Brendan Fraser as an actor who lends himself out for real-life assignments. It’s difficult to resist the cast’s charms and even harder to not tear up at the unabashedly sentimental leanings.

Searchlight likely had high hopes for the Bruce Springsteen biopic “Deliver Me From Nowhere,” which is still a contender for actors Jeremy Allen White and Jeremy Strong. But they might fare even better with “Is This Thing On?” starring Will Arnett as a recently divorced man who pursues stand-up comedy. There’s also “The Testament of Ann Lee,” starring Amanda Seyfried as the founding leader of the Shaker sect.

Another film perhaps being underestimated is Sony Classics’ “Nuremberg,” an old-fashioned courtroom drama about the trials of Nazi officers starring Oscar- winners Rami Malek and Russell Crowe. It’s the kind of film that critics might not single out but has audiences cheering. It also features a stellar ensemble and a script that couldn’t be timelier.

And if you want to talk about underestimated crowd-pleasers, look no further than a film that won the People’s Choice Award at the Toronto Film Festival, usually a surefire indicator of a best picture nomination. And we don’t just mean this year’s winner, “Hamnet,” but last year’s victor — “Life of Chuck.” Though it wasn’t released until April this year, it’s a major audience favorite and there’s nothing else quite like it in the landscape. Its early release also means it’s widely available to viewers, and it’s thoughtful nature will play well on home screens. And bear in mind that distributor Neon knows a few things about a best picture campaign.

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