Variety Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
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2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Weekly Commentary (Updated Aug. 21, 2023): Brett Goldstein may have won this category back-to-back for his turn as Roy Kent in Apple’s “Ted Lasso,” but his co-star Phil Dunster, who plays the young Jamie Tartt, made quite the impression this season. With Goldstein opting to submit the episode “La Locker Room Aux Follies” and Dunster going with “Mom City,” the latter may have chosen the better episode to push him over the finish line.
However, the unexpected spoiler in this race is the incredible James Marsden, who nabbed his first career Emmy nom for Amazon Freevee’s “Jury Duty.” With Marsden putting up the fifth episode of the inaugural season, “Ineffective Assistance,” and a legion of respect from his fellow acting peers, he could be the dark horse that many aren’t expecting to have his name called.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Primetime Emmy predictions in the major categories.
There’s also Tyler James Williams, who won the Golden Globe, who would be a sign of strength for “Abbott Elementary” taking home comedy series if he could snag his first statuette. Noteworthy, the Globes have only matched the Globes twice in the last decade in the supporting actor TV category — Ben Whishaw for “A Very British Scandal” in 2019 and Alexander Skarsgård for “Big Little Lies.” Despite the fact his work on “Abbott” is more than worthy of acclaim given the execution of his role in the sophomore season, he may be somewhat of a “red herring” like former presumed “frontrunners” who came up short at the Emmys such as Chris Colfer (“Glee”) or O Yeong su (“Squid Game”). We should also note the Globes split their TV supporting categories last year, with the other winner Paul Walter Hauser (“Black Bird”).
Henry Winkler won his overdue Emmy for the first season of “Barry,” and a second isn’t out of the question, although his co-star Anthony Carrigan, who hasn’t won yet, will indeed receive votes for his last outing as NoHo Hank.
And then there’s Ebon Moss-Bachrach, who is coming off the sophomore season of “The Bear” and was a huge standout. I wonder, even though his Emmy nom is for the inaugural year if that’s helping him climb the ranks this year? Could be.
The rankings for the category are below.
The final Emmy voting rounds open on Aug. 17 at 9 a.m. PT and close on Aug. 28 at 10 p.m. PST. The 75th Emmy Awards are scheduled to air on Monday, Jan. 15, 2024, at 8 p.m. ET/ 5 p.m. PT. The Creative Arts ceremony will occur on Saturday, Jan. 6, and Sunday, Jan. 7. An edited version will air on FXX on Saturday, Jan. 13, 2024, at 8 p.m. ET. All events will take place at the Peacock Theater at LA Live.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Creative Arts predictions in all categories.
And the Nominees Are:
- James Marsden — “Jury Duty” (Freevee)
Episode submission: “Ineffective Assistance” - Phil Dunster — “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)
Episode submission: “Mom City” - Brett Goldstein — “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)
Episode submission: “La Locker Room Aux Follies” - Henry Winkler — “Barry” (HBO)
Episode submission: “bestest place on earth” - Ebon Moss-Bachrach — “The Bear” (FX)
Episode submission: “Ceres” - Tyler James Williams — “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Episode submission: “Educator of the Year” - Anthony Carrigan — “Barry” (HBO)
Episode submission: “it takes a psycho”
All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Network)**
- William Stanford Davis — “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
- Chris Perfetti — “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
- Tyler James Williams — “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
- Troy Gentile — “The Goldbergs” (ABC)
- Sean Giambrone — “The Goldbergs” (ABC)
- Jimmy Tatro — “Home Economics” (ABC)
- Dulé Hill — “The Wonder Years” (ABC)
- Diedrich Bader — “Lucky Hank” (AMC)
- Cedric Yarbrough — “Lucky Hank” (AMC)
- Damon Gupton — “The Big Door Prize” (Apple TV+)
- Joel Kim Booster — “Loot” (Apple TV+)
- David Hornsby — “Mythic Quest” (Apple TV+)
- Rory Scovel — “Physical” (Apple TV+)
- Paul Sparks — “Physical” (Apple TV+)
- Fred Armisen — “Schmigadoon!” (Apple TV+)
- Tituss Burgess — “Schmigadoon!” (Apple TV+)
- Jaime Camil — “Schmigadoon!” (Apple TV+)
- Martin Short — “Schmigadoon!” (Apple TV+)
- Aaron Tveit — “Schmigadoon!” (Apple TV+)
- Shrinking” (Apple TV+)
- Luke Tennie — “Shrinking” (Apple TV+)
- Michael Urie — “Shrinking” (Apple TV+)
- Kola Bokinni — “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)
- Phil Dunster — “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)
- Cristo Fernández — “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)
- Brett Goldstein — “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)
- Anthony Head — “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)
- Brendan Hunt — “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)
- Toheeb Jimoh — “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)
- James Lance — “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)
- Nick Mohammed — “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)
- Jeremy Swift — “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)
- Matt Jones — “Bob Hearts Abishola” (CBS)
- Brandon Scott Jones — “Ghosts” (CBS)
- Ke Huy Quan — “American Born Chinese” (Disney+)
- Leslie Jordan — “Call Me Kat” (Fox)
- James Marsden — “Jury Duty” (Freevee)
- Brian Tyree Henry — “Atlanta” (FX)
- Lakeith Stanfield — “Atlanta” (FX)
- Lionel Boyce — “The Bear” (FX)
- Ebon Moss-Bachrach — “The Bear” (FX)
- Gata — “Dave” (FX)
- Paul Reiser — “Reboot” (FX)
- Lane Factor — “Reservation Dogs” (FX)
- Zahn McClarnon — “Reservation Dogs” (FX)
- Harvey Guillén — “What We Do in the Shadows” (FX)
- Mark Proksch — “What We Do in the Shadows” (FX)
- Anthony Carrigan — “Barry” (HBO)
- Stephen Root — “Barry” (HBO)
- Henry Winkler — “Barry” (HBO)
- Fran Kranz — “Julia” (HBO)
- David Hyde Pierce — “Julia” (HBO)
- Ken Marino — “The Other Two” (HBO)
- Case Walker — “The Other Two” (HBO)
- Tony Cavalero — “The Righteous Gemstones” (HBO)
- Adam DeVine — “The Righteous Gemstones” (HBO)
- Walter Goggins — “The Righteous Gemstones” (HBO)
- John Goodman — “The Righteous Gemstones” (HBO)
- Jeff Hiller — “Somebody Somewhere” (HBO)
- Sacha Dhawan — “The Great” (Hulu)
- Bayo Gbadamosi — “The Great” (Hulu)
- Douglas Hodge — “The Great” (Hulu)
- Gwilym Lee — “The Great” (Hulu)
- Ike Barinholtz — “History of the World Part II” (Hulu)
- Mel Brooks — “History of the World Part II” (Hulu)
- Nick Kroll — “History of the World Part II” (Hulu)
- Christopher Lowell — “How I Met Your Father” (Hulu)
- James Martinez — “Love, Victor” (Hulu)
- Mohammed Amer — “Ramy” (Hulu)
- Jon Barinholtz — “American Auto” (NBC)
- Carl Tart — “Grand Crew” (NBC)
- Michael Che — “Saturday Night Live” (NBC)
- Mikey Day— “Saturday Night Live” (NBC)
- Andrew Dismukes — “Saturday Night Live” (NBC)
- Marcello Hernandez — “Saturday Night Live” (NBC)
- James Austin Johnson — “Saturday Night Live” (NBC)
- Colin Jost — “Saturday Night Live” (NBC)
- Michael Longfellow — “Saturday Night Live” (NBC)
- Kenan Thompson — “Saturday Night Live” (NBC)
- Devon Walker — “Saturday Night Live” (NBC)
- Bowen Yang — “Saturday Night Live” (NBC)
- Dawnn Lewis — “Young Rock” (NBC)
- James Marsden — “Dead to Me” (Netflix)
- Samuel Arnold — “Emily in Paris” (Netflix)
- Omar Elba — “Mo” (Netflix)
- Jamie McShane — “Wednesday” (Netflix)
- Vaughn Hebron — “The Game” (Paramount+)
- Toby Sandeman — “The Game” (Paramount+)
- Max Casella — “Tulsa King” (Paramount+)
- Richie Coster — “Tulsa King” (Paramount+)
- Garrett Hedlund — “Tulsa King” (Paramount+)
- Domenick Lombardozzi — “Tulsa King” (Paramount+)
- Vincent Piazza — “Tulsa King” (Paramount+)
- Alan C. Peterson — “Tulsa King” (Paramount+)
- Martin Starr — “Tulsa King” (Paramount+)
- Jay Will — “Tulsa King” (Paramount+)
- Joe Pesci — “Bupkis” (Peacock)
- Benjamin Bratt — “Poker Face” (Peacock)
- Luke Kirby — “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (Prime Video)
- Kevin Pollak — “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (Prime Video)
- Tony Shalhoub — “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (Prime Video)
- Michael Zegen — “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (Prime Video)
- Christopher Walken — “The Outlaws” (Prime Video)
- Benjamin Earl Turner — “Blindspotting” (Starz)
- Ryan Hansen — “Party Down” (Starz)
- Ken Marino — “Party Down” (Starz)
- Martin Starr — “Party Down” (Starz)
- Tyrel Jackson Williams — “Party Down” (Starz)
** This list or category submission is not yet complete or confirmed and is subject to change.
2022 category winner: Brett Goldstein, “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+) — Season 2
Emmy Awards Predictions Categories
TV MOVIE | LEAD ACTRESS (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | DIRECTING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | REALITY (COMPETITION, STRUCTURED, UNSTRUCTURED, HOST)
Creative Arts and Other Emmy Categories
GUEST ACTRESS (COMEDY) | MUSIC | OTHER CATEGORIES
About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between Jun. 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans, and executives.
