For three months in a row this year, U.S. military ships have sailed through the Taiwan Strait, seen as a show of support for Taipei and a challenge to Beijing. They are just one aspect of Trump administration’s backing for Taiwan, and combined with China’s more aggressive approach to the democratic island, many analysts fear a cross-strait crisis.
Trump Is Raising the Stakes
In the past nine months, U.S. ships have sailed through the Taiwan Strait six times. During the Obama administration, passages were far less frequent, at just one to three times per year. Even though the Taiwan Strait is an international waterway, China is sensitive to the U.S. military’s presence and considers any transits of U.S. ships through the strait “provocative actions.”
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Meanwhile, the Trump administration is said to be put on hold until after the United States seals a trade deal with China.
Aside from military contacts, President Donald J. Trump has bolstered Taiwan through other measures. After the 2016 election, for example, he de facto embassy in Taipei despite Chinese objections.
Yet U.S. Arms Sales Flat
While the Trump administration is taking more assertive steps than those of his predecessors, its arms sales to Taiwan are thus far nothing remarkable.
The United States has sold military equipment to Taiwan since 1979. That year, as President Jimmy Carter severed formal diplomatic ties with the island and formally recognized China, Congress passed the Taiwan Relations Act, which is the basis for Washington’s relationship with Taipei and includes the provision of arms for Taiwan’s self-defense. The law does not require the United States to defend Taiwan if China attacks, but it also doesn’t rule it out—a policy known as strategic ambiguity.
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Since then, the United States has followed through on its commitment to support the island’s defenses, with Taiwan ranking as one of the $12 billion [PDF]. President George W. Bush approved nine arms packages, worth approximately $5 billion, during his first term.
Trump has announced two major military sales to Taiwan. The first, approved in June 2017, was worth $330 million, was approved.
A Cross-Strait Crisis Looming?
The clouds over Taiwan have grown darker in recent months. In January, Chinese President Xi Jinping said Taiwan reiterated that her government will never accept the “one country, two systems” model and defended the democratic island’s sovereignty.
The worrisome China-Taiwan tensions come as the reportedly featured more prominently than ever before.
Experts say all of these factors are increasing the risk of a cross-strait crisis. “The status quo is admittedly imperfect,” wrote CFR President Richard N. Haass, “but it is far less imperfect than what would follow unilateral actions and attempts to resolve a situation that doesn’t lend itself to a neat solution.”