Netanyahu seems on track to be Israel’s next prime minister

Sayeret Matkal, Israel’s premier commando unit, did not simply model itself on Britain’s Special Air Service (sas), it also stole its motto: “Who dares wins”. It is a creed that has been tested almost to destruction by Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister and an alumnus of the Israeli unit. After four failed attempts and 16 months in opposition, Mr Netanyahu seems to have won a parliamentary majority that will put him back in the prime minister’s office. As The Economist went to press some 90% of votes cast in the election on November 1st had been counted. The tally shows that the group of right-wing and religious parties supporting Mr Netanyahu are almost certain to have 62-65 of the 120 seats in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, having won just a few thousand more votes than their rivals. Mr Netanyahu owes his remarkable comeback to a surge in nationalist voting whipped up by his far-right allies in the Jewish Power party. Another contributing factor was the chronic division among centre-left and Arab parties, two of which seem to have failed to cross the electoral threshold of 3.25%. These differences led to the early demise of the government formed in June 2021 by a broad coalition assembled by Yair Lapid that included right-wing, centrist, left-wing and Islamist parties. In a victory speech to members of his Likud party in Jerusalem, Mr Netanyahu triumphantly declared that “our way, the way of Likud, proved itself.” In fact, Likud has barely increased its tally from the previous election in March 2021. The big gains made by his bloc are almost entirely due to the astonishing success of the Religious Zionism list, which includes the Jewish Power party, that more than doubled its number of seats. Mr Netanyahu had prevailed upon the Jewish Power leader, Itamar Ben-Gvir, to merge his list with that of two other far-right parties, ensuring that votes for his camp would not be wasted on parties falling below the threshold. Mr Ben-Gvir was until very recently a political pariah. His résumé includes threatening to “get to” the former prime minister, Yitzhak Rabin, shortly before his assassination by a Jewish extremist in 1995, and membership of a virulently anti-Arab party that was proscribed by the Israeli government as a terrorist organisation. As recently as the election held in March 2020, Jewish Power won just 19,000 votes. Mr Netanyahu, however, legitimised him and launched him on a rocket-like trajectory. On the day of the election Mr Ben-Gvir was mobbed by adulatory crowds as he toured working-class and religious neighbourhoods. He promised them that, with him in the new government, “we will be the landlords.” He is now the co-leader of the third-largest party in the Knesset and can dictate his terms to Mr Netanyahu, who will need Mr Ben-Gvir if he is to form a government. Top of his wish list is to be appointed public-security minister, in charge of Israel’s police. Mr Netanyahu’s usual coalition partners, the ultra-Orthodox parties, have their own lists of demands. These include bigger budgets for religious schools as well as the right not to teach their children ungodly subjects such as maths and English. The parties in Mr Netanyahu’s coalition also hope to weaken the power of the courts, which they see as an obstacle to their aim of grabbing more land in territories Israel occupied in 1967. That may suit Mr Netanyahu, who is on trial on charges of bribery, fraud and “breach of trust”. He insists that his innocence will come out in court and denies trying to knobble the legal process. But his allies have spoken of replacing the attorney-general and striking out the crime of breach of trust. After five elections in less than four years, many Israelis crave stability. Yet they may be disappointed in their hope that Mr Netanyahu will provide this. Once back in office he may call yet another election to cut his new partners down to size. ■

Netanyahu seems on track to be Israel’s next prime minister

Big gains by far-right parties may push him to victory