The Patriots, one could deduce, find themselves in a bit of a philosophical bind.
On the one hand, they have a dynamic young quarterback whose ability to extend plays and create explosive gains is among his greatest strengths. On the other hand, extending plays the way Drake Maye does can lead to the type of physical punishment that could cause those explosive plays to suddenly disappear in a wisp of smoke.
What's the answer, then? How do they fix it? Maye is second in the NFL this season with 34 sacks taken, behind only Titans rookie Cam Ward (38).
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Josh McDaniels explained this week that they don't want to try to alter Maye's DNA on the fly. But he acknowledged that the Patriots are hoping the 23-year-old can execute the intricate dance between staying true to his authentic self and self-preservation.
“I don't know that 'fixing' is the right phraseology, honestly,” McDaniels said. “I think this is kind of a complicated solution. I think that we’re trying to thread a fine line here of making those plays off-schedule, which everyone loves, including me, he does. And then doing something where we hang onto it a little longer than maybe we could and then incur a negative play or a turnover, which, obviously, we don't want to do those either.
"I think that he's made some really good plays with his legs and extended some things and made some good pass plays by extending the plays. I don't think we want to over-coach that and take that away from him, which we're not doing."
Maye will need his legs at times on Sunday in Tampa Bay against one of the best -- and most blitz-happy -- defenses in the NFL. How he uses them is the key.
Is it to buy time and keep himself upright? Is it to do whatever it takes beyond the line of scrimmage to extend a drive? Is it to bounce around the pocket, looking for space to launch one deep?
Some of Maye's sacks, he knows, are due to his own decision-making. Per Pro Football Focus, 12 of his sacks have been attributed to him and not his teammates in pass-protection.
"I think those guys, speaking offensive line, have done a great job all year," Maye said. "A lot of the sacks I have taken have been my fault, me holding the football.
"... We try to work on in practice and try to simulate drills and be really good when we’re on our team periods, trying to avoid it. From there, just don’t make it too big a deal because I think there are some times where we’re still making plays when I do try to extend plays. Just know the point of the play, try to get that and execute it."
How Maye protects himself in the face of inevitable Buccaneers pressures is one of the keys matchups for New England this weekend. Let's get to the juiciest of them...
The Bucs defense, coming off a bye, represents one of the greatest challenges the Patriots offense will face all season. Led by head coach Todd Bowles, Tampa is third in EPA per play, third in EPA per rush and sixth in EPA per dropback.
The Bucs' pass-rush, when blitzing or not, has been ferocious. Opposing quarterbacks have the second-shortest average time to throw against them, and when they decide to blitz -- and they do so at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL, per Sumer Sports -- they're even more dangerous: They generate pressure on over half of those snaps (52.3 percent).
Whether or not they adhere to that style is one of the game's most fascinating storylines because their opponent -- the second-year quarterback who is playing at an MVP level -- just so happens to thrive against the blitz.
Maye has seven touchdowns and zero picks against blitz looks this season. He's third in quarterback rating against the blitz, second in completion percentage and second in EPA when blitzed.
New England staying out of obvious passing situations could help keep the Tampa blitz at bay. But the Patriots have struggled to run the football all year, meaning they've invited third-and-long situations when trying to make hay on the ground on early downs. That figures to continue given their 30th-ranked rushing offense in terms of EPA per attempt. Additionally, Rhamondre Stevenson (toe) will miss the game, meaning the team is without its most experienced runner and pass-protecting back.
Thus -- surprise! -- the hopes of the Patriots adding another one to the win column will ride heavily on the performance of their young passer.
Matchup that will make your Sunday
Patriots tight ends vs. Bucs linebackers
The temptation may be to quickly insert "Patriots defense vs. Bucs running game" here. And that wouldn't necessarily be wrong. Mike Vrabel's defense still hasn't given up a 50-yard rusher to this point in the season, and the Bucs are struggling to run the football (27th in rushing success rate) with their top back Bucky Irving banged up.
But Patriots tight ends could be the catalyst to victory in this one. Multi-tight end sets happen to be one of several areas where this Bucs defense -- as good as it has been -- struggles. They're 25th in EPA per play allowed against 12-personnel looks, per Sumer Sports, and they're 30th in EPA per play when faced with any pass play that features multiple backs or multiple tight ends.
That should be music to McDaniels' ears. New England is 12th in the league in their use of 12-personnel (27.3 percent) and third in 21-personnel play frequency (16.9 percent).
Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper could be particularly effective this week because the Bucs have trouble defending the middle of the field. They're 29th in the NFL in EPA allowed on throws between the numbers. And, according to Pro Football Focus, they have two of the worst coverage linebackers in the league. Of 52 qualifying 'backers, Lavonte David and SirVocea Dennis rank 40th and 52nd in PFF coverage grade.
Matchup that will surprise you
Kyle Williams vs. rookie growing pains
We've been here before: assuming New England's third-round rookie at the receiver position is about to break through with more production. At this point, who knows when that breakthrough game will come for Kyle Williams?
But he has a chance this week. The reason? Reps.
For a player who could stand to benefit from having more chemistry with Maye, Williams was afforded an opportunity to build that up during this week's practices -- at least more so than other weeks when he's been further down the depth chart. A hamstring injury to Kayshon Boutte will keep him out in Tampa, meaning Williams has seen more work in practice and has been able to focus on one receiver spot.
Previously, the Patriots have asked Williams to be ready to contribute at any of the three receiver roles within the offense. And when thrust into game situations, there was a chance that he'd be asked to run a route he hadn't practiced.
Now, with a heavier practice workload and a singular focus positionally, perhaps that helps Williams produce more than he has. The Washington State product is stuck on two catches for 20 yards this season, and he hasn't had a catch since Week 3.
"He had to play a lot of different positions and there's a lot of moving parts," Vrabel said of Williams this week. "And Kayshon went down, and Kyle's been learning a lot of different positions. I'm excited that he'll probably get an opportunity here, a little greater opportunity going forward."
Matchup that could ruin your Sunday
Patriots defensive backs vs. Baker Mayfield's courage
Part of what makes this one of the most entertaining quarterback matchups of the year is that the playing styles of both Maye and Baker Mayfield lend themselves to some jaw-dropping results.
The Patriots have benefitted from some next-level accuracy from their signal-caller. (Maye has a league-leading 9.6 completion percentage over expected.) But the Bucs have thrived at times thanks to a devil-may-care approach from theirs.
Mayfield is second in the NFL in tight-window throw rate (19.3), which NextGen Stats tracks as the percentage of throws made to targets with less than one yard of separation when the pass arrives. He's also seemingly unbothered when pressured, racking up the sixth-most passing yards under pressure (591), a 6-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio when pressured, and the seventh-best quarterback rating in football (87.0) under pressure.
America's QB has been on one this season 👨🍳
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The Bucs have run into issues offensively this season. They're just 19th in EPA per play. They're 26th in dropback success rate. But as Mayfield's gambling nature might suggest, they're eighth-ranked explosive-play rate has helped buoy them.
There's a bit of an all-or-nothing element to this attack, but if Mayfield is hot after a week off -- despite being without top wideout Mike Evans -- he will be one of the toughest quarterbacks to slow down the Patriots (eighth in EPA per play and 13th in EPA per dropback) have seen.
The Patriots' best bet? Hope some of his riskier throws end up in their hands. While Mayfield has just two picks on the season, he does have the third-most turnover-worthy plays among quarterbacks with 13, per PFF.
