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Explaining the shake-up at the top of the Phillies' prospect list

Andrew Painter was the Phillies' #1 prospect for two years. Which MLB hopeful is the new man on top?

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With the World Series officially over, the MLB offseason has started. Cole Weintraub catches up with Ruben Amaro Jr. to get the former GM’s take on what the Phillies plan of attack for this offseason should be.

As we enter MLB free agency and what should be a busy offseason, there are guaranteed to be some surprises. Baseball America threw out the first eyebrow-raising moment for Phillies fans today. The publication released its latest ranking of the top ten prospects for all 30 MLB teams, and there is a new player at the top of the list.

It is not starting pitcher Andrew Painter, as it was last year, and the year before that.

It is shortstop Aidan Miller, the team’s 2023 1st-round draft pick, riding the wave of a strong 2025 season at the plate, and on the basepaths.

Baseball America writer Josh Norris was a guest on The Phillies Show podcast. He drew up the rankings, and this isn’t a hot take. He does exhaustive research on the players and teams he covers, and interviews many people throughout front offices and developmental departments within MLB franchises.

The reason for the shake-up is largely because Painter was shelved following Tommy John surgery, and between his injury in 2022 and the start of 2025, he really only pitched 15 innings in the 2024 Arizona Fall League.

“[2025] certainly wasn’t a bad year, it was a great year for a guy just coming off Tommy John surgery,” Norris said of Painter, who pitched to a 5-6 record and a 5.40 ERA in 22 starts for the AAA Iron Pigs.

Despite dropping Painter to No. 2, Norris remains high on the righty flame-thrower.

“I’m Andrew Painter’s number-1 fan, outside of the Painter household,” Norris joked. “I put it all out there and said the young man is gonna be a Hall of Famer based on what I’ve seen.”

“I’ve seen a ton of pitching prospects in my life. I mean, I’ve seen just about all of them. He was up there. I remember leaving the park [after watching Painter pitch] saying I’ve only felt this way three times.”

The other two pitchers? Former Nationals All-Star Stephen Strasburg, who was among the best in the game before injuries curtailed his career, and the late Jose Fernandez, who won Rookie of the Year for the Marlins in 2013 and made two All-Star teams before tragically losing his life at 24.

As for Miller’s rise to the top? “There were a lot of questions on whether he could stick at shortstop,” Norris said. “Right now, the only question on whether he could stick at shortstop [with the Phillies] is Trea Turner.”

“He’s a shortstop. He’s become more athletic, more explosive, his arm has gotten better, [baseball insiders] in and out of the organization, people say ‘this is probably a really good, above-average major league shortstop right now.’”

Miller played nearly all of 2025 at double-A Reading. He struggled through the first half of the season, and on July 31st was hitting .222 with a .696 OPS.

But he finished strong. Over his final 36 games – which included eight at triple-A Lehigh Valley – Miller hit .356 with an OPS of 1.099, more walks (31) than strikeouts (29), and 39 runs scored.

He also led the entire organization with 52 stolen bases, a number that belies his “run tool grade” from scouts. MLB scouts grade players on a 20-to-80 scale, and gave Miller a 50 for his speed, slightly above average. These grades aren’t etched in stone, but this can show a bit of the difference subjectivity plays in scouting, and perhaps, that Miller has base-running instincts that you can’t get from a 60-yard dash time.

Here is Norris’ full Top 10 list of Phillies prospects:

  1. Aidan Miller, SS
  2. Andrew Painter, SP
  3. Justin Crawford, OF
  4. Aroon Escobar, 2B
  5. Gage Wood, P
  6. Dante Nori, OF
  7. Gabriel Rincones, OF
  8. Matthew Fisher, P
  9. Moises Chace, SP
  10.  Cade Obermuller, P
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